Questionable NY Mets contract with Sean Manaea proves one thing they must reconsider

After a solid 2024 season, Sean Manaea returned to the New York Mets on a three-year, $75 million deal. Last year was the first year of that contract and it was disappointing to say the least. After making 12 shaky starts, he was moved to the bullpen where he failed to turn things around, culminating in a 5.64 ERA and 4.39 FIP over 60.2 innings. Now, data from spring training is suggesting that this short-term contract, high-AAV approach to free agency might not be a sustainable model for the future.

Sean Manaea's stuff seems greatly diminished in spring training thus far, a glaring concern for the remainder of his contract

Manaea has pitched 5.2 innings in spring training and while his 6.35 ERA is far from ideal, it's not the most concerning piece of information. Instead, the most unsettling figure is just how much his velocity has diminished across the board since his first year with the Mets.

It's easy to assume that he's still in the process of ramping up, but with just a few weeks left before Opening Day, there isn't a lot of reason to believe that he'll manage to add 3-4 mph to his fastball offerings by the time the regular season starts.

To his credit, he dealt with his fair share of injury setbacks last season which could be contributing to the lack of heat behind his pitches. He managed to avoid needing surgery this offseason but it's unclear as to whether he's truly pitching at full health.

The immediate impact of this concerning information is that he's no longer a competitive candidate to be a part of the team's rotation. Longer term, the Mets will have to figure out what to do with his contract. He's under club control for two more years but they'll owe him roughly $34.5 million over that span with the remainder of the $15.5 million to be deferred until 2035-2044.

This begs the question — are these types of short-term contracts too risky for the team to pursue in the future? On one hand, it helps prevent situations where the back-half of long-term pitching contracts are riddled with poor performance and injuries. On the other hand, the Mets have a very brief window to reap the benefits of the signing. The first third of the contract already failed to deliver value for money and things don't look too optimistic for next year either.

Furthermore, the team is still committing a significant amount of payroll to Manaea. Thankfully, some of it is deferred for the next decade but his competitive balance salary is the fifth-highest on the team, barely edging out Luis Robert Jr. according to Cot's Contracts.

The negotiations could've been affected by Manaea's age since he just recently turned 34, inherently limiting the duration of a potential contract. However, the Mets will have a chance to re-evaluate their pitching contract strategy soon as Freddy Peralta could be their next free agent target. He'll be 30 years old by the time he hits free agency, giving the organization more productive years to pursue.

All hope is not lost for Manaea but there's increasing cause for concern with each day. If the contract ends up being a total dud, it shouldn't be a huge deal for an organization regularly in the upper echelon of payroll but if the Mets do want to improve on their roster construction, it may be time to go back to the drawing board.