Phillies extension complicates NY Mets contract negotiations with Freddy Peralta

Leave it to the Philadelphia Phillies to give the New York Mets something slightly sour in March. After losing Ranger Suarez in free agency to the Boston Red Sox on a five-year deal worth $130 million (not that they were trying to keep him), they’ve spent that money and more to keep Jesus Luzardo around. He got $1 million more per year on the same contract.

Luzardo has long been one of those highly-regarded young pitchers who had the stuff but not the results to become a Cy Young contender. He finished in the top 10 last year with the Phillies, his first time receiving any consideration. Staying healthy was key.

For the Mets, it means dealing with him for another half-decade more. It also increased how much they’re going to need to pay Peralta while also maybe setting an example of how ridiculous a 7 or 8 contract demand is.

The price for the Mets on Freddy Peralta just went up, the years might’ve gone down

If there was a contract to reference on the lower end of what the Mets might need to pay Peralta, it was the Suarez one. The five-year deal worth $130 million had a $26 million AAV. Luzardo’s goes up to $27 million AAV. The easy thing for the Mets to do is go up to $28 million on the same five years. It’s the next step for a pitcher on this level. Peralta is more accomplished than Luzardo. The Phillies are buying into his future rather than his accomplishments. The Mets, with any sort of Peralta extension, would be doing a little more of both.

If years are what Peralta desires most, he’s probably not going to get it from the Mets. David Stearns would need to more than double the number of years he has given to any other Mets starting pitcher. While not an uncertainty that he’d be completely avoidant of it, the Mets have a lot of other pitchers they can target next offseason if he did walk in free agency. Many don't compare, but will come with a reasonable contract.

Peralta has clearly started the bidding with enough wiggle room to go down. It’s not uncommon. Cody Bellinger wanted 8 years. He ended up with 5.

Peralta won’t be in any rush to take the $28 million AAV deal over five years. Although it’s what Luzardo received from Philadelphia, the $210 over 8 years Dylan Cease got from the Toronto Blue Jays is sure to be the comparison he’d like to draw instead.

Through age 29, Peralta’s Baseball-Reference similarity score most closely matches Zac Gallen. Certainly not the comparison he’d like, Gallen ended up returning to the Arizona Diamondbacks for the same sum he turned down on the qualifying offer of just over $22 million with a portion deferred. If anything, that may incentivize Peralta to take a reasonable deal based on his 2025 performance, not what lies ahead for 2026.