Freddy Peralta isn’t giving the New York Mets any sort of hometown discount. He joined the Mets and rather than seeing apartments for rent on a one-year lease, he saw dollar signs and a place to call home for more than half a decade. The NY Post’s Jon Heyman reports Peralta is seeking a 7-8 year deal.
The contract length is large and maybe more so than some even realize. Only six starting pitchers have deals of 7+ years at the moment. The newest belongs to Dylan Cease who signed with the Toronto Blue Jays this offseason for 7 years and $210 million. The oldest is Gerrit Cole on a 9-year deal.
Results have varied. We don’t know about Cease. Cole has pitched well when healthy but the injury bug took care of him midway through. Others haven’t aged well, Jose Berrios on the outs with the Blue Jays and Aaron Nola pitching poorly with the Philadelphia Phillies. The unicorn of it all, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, was one the Mets actually pursued. Those circumstances, as an international free agent, are much different. Max Fried is the other with a contract with 7+ years, living up to the hype in year one with 7 more seasons to go.
Is Freddy Peralta actually worth a 7-8 year commitment?
Someone might go there. The Blue Jays were willing to with Cease, who is a decent enough comparison to Peralta. Cease had a bad result, good peripheral season. He’s a guy whose ERA will swing in major ways from year-to-year. Big inning and strikeout totals are what make him a worthwhile gamble. Peralta doesn’t have quite the same track record of eating innings. That could both be an argument in favor of and against. The fewer miles on an arm at the time of a signing, usually the better.
The Mets would need to more than double the number of years they seem to prefer to give starting pitchers. David Stearns hasn’t gone beyond three with anyone, but that’s also over the course of only three offseasons. Regularly proven right by avoiding long-term deals, it’s hard to fathom why they would make an exception for Peralta.
Shooting for 7-8 years is the wise thing for Peralta to do now as it’s right out of the negotiating playbook. Aim for more than you really would get. This probably puts Peralta more in the 5-6 year range if he and the Mets meet in the middle.
Any sort of long-term deal with New York would likely need to include opt-outs, both for the team and player. Vesting options as well, it’s not going to be a black and white deal we’re assured will last from start to finish.
The Mets pitching development gives them both reasons to want to keep Peralta and not. A team is unlikely to be 100% successful with building their starting staff exclusively through the farm. A mixture of homegrown talent, veterans on short-term deals, and an ace like Peralta seems like a practical approach.
A “will they or won’t they?” storyline between the Mets and a long-term marriage with the Mets will be an ongoing conversation until something is made definitive. Some permanency in the rotation would be nice, but so is the ability to reload with freshness and not get stuck with an out-of-date product.
