Bo Bichette's NY Mets decision could be early hint of what's coming with MLB's CBA

Due to the synchronous underperformances of both Bo Bichette and the New York Mets, trade deadline discussions around the star third baseman have been a little more muted than you'd otherwise expect for a player of his stature on a selling team. He's worked hard to climb out of the early season hole he dug for himself, but there aren't going to be a lot of teams lining up to take on a $42 million salary during the middle of a season when it comes attached to someone with an 88 wRC+.

There's also the matter of his opt-out decision to consider, which will have massive ramifications for his team's payroll in 2027. With a lockout looming in December, it's hard to gauge what his market in free agency might be, even if he rediscovers his All-Star form of yesteryear in the second half.

That confluence of factors does put Bichette in a rather unique position as one of the highest-profile players who will have to try and read the tea leaves prior to free agency. Could his contract option deciscion give us some insight into what's to come from the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Bo Bichette's option decision with Mets will be heavily influenced by his gauge of the rift between players and owners

If Bichette opts in to his deal with the Mets, it's reasonable to assume that he's at least somewhat nervous about the possibility of a salary cap. He'll already have difficulty finding an organization to match his current AAV thanks to his poor performance this year -- adding an artificial limit to what teams can spend will all but shut him out of the top-end of the market.

Of course, an opt-in doesn't necessarily mean a cap is coming. We already know how diametrically opposed to the idea the MLB Players Association is, and it's possible that Bichette recognizes that he'll stand to lose money on a new deal no matter what happens during the lockout. If he continues to put up below-average numbers down the stretch, it's hard to imagine him choosing another path, regardless of what he believes will happen with the CBA.

And yet, if Bichette opts out of his deal, it's probably a good sign that his camp is confident in a player-friendly CBA. At 28 years old, he's still in the thick of his prime, so passing up on $84 million over the next two seasons is advisable if he thinks a long-term contract is awaiting him in free agency. That only happens if no cap on spending is put in place.

We should also present the disclaimer that it's possible Bichette and his camp guess wrong; no one really knows what will happen during these negotiations until the lockout starts to threaten games and revenue, so using one player as a litmus test won't necessarily lead us to the right answer. However, with so much uncertainty facing baseball in the coming months, this is one of our few pathways as fans to try and glean how the people on the inside are feeling about the oncoming labor dispute.

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