Why this team is a bigger threat to the NY Mets than the LA Dodgers for Tarik Skubal

The Tarik Skubal sweepstakes will be coming to a close soon, with the expectation being that the ace left-hander signs before the expiration of the current CBA on December 1. The New York Mets are gaining steam as the favorites to sign him.

The Mets are emerging as one of the top favorites to land the two-time Cy Young winner. They are one of six teams to score a meeting with him prior to Thanksgiving, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Diego Padres, and the Toronto Blue Jays also being among the six clubs, along with two mystery teams.

New York can afford to give Skubal the record-setting long-term deal that he craves. It would take David Stearns abandoning his typical conservative approach to free-agent starters (nothing over three years) and/or an intervention from Steve Cohen. We've yet to get an indication of whether or not that will happen, but it's possible.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers, the Mets' biggest rival and the incumbent in the race, might not have the financial advantage they've enjoyed in years past. Andrew Friedman has shown in recent years that he favors short-term, high AAV deals, and now, with a federal investigation into owner Mark Walter, it seems that they're wary of those huge commitments. They certainly want Skubal back, but only on a short-term contract.

Skubal reportedly has no interest in anything short-term, so unless his market somehow collapses completely, it would seem like Los Angeles will fade to the background.

That would seem to favor the Mets, though not all are convinced. The Padres have new ownership and are said to love the idea of going big to bring home Skubal. There's a commitment to winning there, and San Diego has some payroll flexibility heading into 2027, but the club also has a lot of needs.

Specifically, they need at least two, if not three, starters beyond Skubal. They need to retain or replace Ty France, and could also use another impact hitter. Suddenly, the space they have in the short term doesn't seem like much, and they have some truly awful long-term deals on the books like Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, as well as a less-underwater big-money commitment to Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Blue Jays are actually the biggest threat to the Mets of the known teams in the Tarik Skubal race

First and foremost, the Blue Jays have proven that they aren't afraid to spend, giving Dylan Cease seven years and $210 million, as well as making sizable expenditures for Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers, and others.

The Jays were coming off a World Series in 2025 in which they took the Dodgers to the brink, just to come up short in Game 7. They were motivated to spend to get over the hump. Instead, they were left out of the playoffs entirely. There are only two ways to handle a disappointment like that — hide with your tail between your legs, or come out swinging even harder the next go-around.

Toronto is owned by media and telecommunications giant Rogers Communications Inc., which means the franchise has plenty of financial backing. Rogers is one of the largest corporations, not just in Canada, but in the entire world.

There is also some immediate payroll space opening up. Depending on the source, the Blue Jays' current 2027 payroll is sitting anywhere from about $19 million below last season's number (per Spotrac) to $30 million less than last year's number (per FanGraphs' Roster Resource).

Toronto has the Cease deal as well as nine more years of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the books, but they'll have sizeable money coming off the books in the coming years with Jose Berrios and Anthony Santander's contracts expiring after 2028 and 2029, respectively.

Similar to the Mets, the Blue Jays have the motivation to stop their postseason skid and the big-money backing to sign this sort of mega deal. They also have the payroll flexibility now and in the future to make this happen. The question will be if both clubs go all in, where Skubal would prefer to play for the rest of his career.

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