A reunion with Jacob deGrom might be NY Mets' best Tarik Skubal backup plan

The New York Mets can afford to pay Tarik Skubal a record-setting contract. The question is, will they? We know David Stearns' position on doling out long-term mega-deals to free-agent starting pitchers, though Skubal isn't just any free-agent starter. If there were ever the case for the Mets to make an exception, this is it.

Of course, it takes two to tango. Even if New York were willing to back up the Brinks truck for the two-time Cy Young winner, he's going to have offers that are bananas across the board, and he's going to decide where the best place for him to win a ring and settle his family will be.

Some believe that the Mets will be one of the most aggressive teams in their pursuit of Skubal, but there are others who believe that the front office isn't as confident that they'll be able to land him.

The need in the rotation is clear. Nolan McLean is emerging as an ace, but for New York to truly right the ship, getting a veteran ace to pair him with is crucial. The problem is that the rest of the free-agent alternatives, while good, aren't nearly on the same level.

One player who is, though, is a player well known in Flushing. The Texas Rangers have a budget problem, with an estimated $182 million payroll and a target of $190 million. Insider Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (subscription required) believes that they'll have no choice but to trade at least one of their highest-paid stars, with Jacob deGrom front and center.

Jacob deGrom is a better fit than Michael King or any other Tarik Skubal backup plan for the Mets

For many, Michael King is the prime free-agent fallback option for the Mets if they lose out on Skubal. He's likely the second-best starter on the market, and he has a history of playoff dominance. Add in a dash of being proven in the New York media market, and you've got a confluence of factors that build a strong case in favor of signing him.

However, King isn't without his red flags. The 31-year-old dealt with injuries in 2025 and saw his peripherals take a hit. He recorded a 3.44 ERA, but his xFIP, FIP, and xERA all ranged between 4.20 and 4.42. Mainly due to the injury, he was forced to settle for the pillow contract he just opted out of.

In 2026, King once again looked like a front-end starter with a 3.22 ERA. However, his strikeout rate has fallen off dramatically, dropping from 27.7% in 2024 to 24.7% in 2025 to a 21% clip in 2026. Yet again, his ERA estimators were all over 4.00.

King is going to require a long-term deal this time around, and the health and performance concerns are the exact reason why Stearns has been wary of giving frontline starters long-term contracts.

There's no such concern with deGrom. The 38-year-old is entering the last year of his deal. He's set to make a hefty $37 million, and there's a $20 million club option for 2028 that carries no buyout. That's a significant investment, and with a 4.20 ERA in 2026, it might seem like he's running out of gas and unable to pitch up to expectations given that bloated salary.

However, just as King's superb ERA is a bit misleading, so too is deGrom's subpar one. The two-time Cy Young winner's fastball is still humming with an average velocity of 97.5 miles per hour. He struck out 30.1% of batters he faced in 2026, while posting a stellar 6.9% walk rate. That gave him a FIP of 3.11, an xFIP of 3.14, and an xERA of 3.47.

To further illustrate the point, deGrom's 33.2% whiff rate was a 95th-percentile performance, while his 35.1% chase rate ranked in the 89th percentile. He's still as untouchable as ever. In a trade, the Mets would have all the leverage.

The problem the Rangers face is that deGrom has a full no-trade clause. He blocked a trade to the Atlanta Braves at the 2026 trade deadline. Coming home to Queens might be one of the only ways to entice him to waive it.

The no-trade clause also kills Texas's negotiating position. President of baseball operations Chris Young surely knows that he'll have to eat some money on the deal, which would further lower the Mets' cost. On top of that, they can't ask for much back. One player who could interest them is Brett Baty to platoon at second base with southpaw-masher Justin Foscue. Throw in a lottery-ticket prospect, and Stearns could get the yes.

Health is always a concern with deGrom, but he made 31 starts this year and 30 starts in 2025. He also posted a 2.97 ERA in 2025, further proving that he's still got it.

With a low cost of acquisition and some financial assistance from the Rangers, there's no better value to get ace-like performance in 2027. The option means that if deGrom stays healthy and productive, the Mets could decide to keep him around at a reasonable rate in 2028, too. By the time he's ready to hang it up, McLean may have ascended to the rarefied air that Skubal occupies, setting up the rotation once and for all without having to sign a record-setting contract.

At the end of the day, if the Mets want a veteran ace and can't get a deal done with Skubal, it's clear that a reunion with deGrom is the best overall option. It'd be a fun homecoming for fans, too.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow