3 NY Mets players whose pitch selection is holding them back

The 2025 New York Mets season has been a tale of two halves, and their pitching staff has been a major reason for the dramatic shift in their fortunes. After entering the All-Star break as one of the best pitching staffs in the league, the Mets' bullpen and rotation struggled mightily in the second half, with the team’s collective ERA ballooning and their run prevention taking a significant hit. This downturn directly contributed to the team's struggles and their eventual playoff exit.

While injuries and fatigue played a role, a closer look at Statcast data reveals that for several key pitchers, the issue isn't a lack of talent but rather an inefficient pitch mix or a decline in the effectiveness of a key offering. This analysis focuses on three pitchers whose pitch selection has been a roadblock to their performance, directly contributing to the team's second-half woes and preventing them from reaching their full potential.

Kodai Senga's inefficient four-seam fastball

Kodai Senga, the Mets' right-handed starter, has had a mixed 2025 season. One of the main culprits for his struggles appears to be his four-seam fastball. In the past, his fastball has been a reliable pitch, but Statcast data for 2025 shows a significant decline in its effectiveness. Opponents have a higher slugging percentage and are making more contact against it, which could be attributed to a loss of velocity. While his ghost fork remains a devastating weapon, his struggles with a less efficient fastball are negatively impacting his ability to set up his other pitches.

This is reflected in the gap between his ERA and xERA, indicating he may be outperforming his underlying metrics. Given his issues with fastball velocity, Senga should lean more on his sinker, which is known for inducing a high rate of ground balls. By mixing his sinker with his devastating forkball, he can create the necessary velocity and movement differential to keep hitters off balance and increase his ground ball rate for more successful outings. For Senga to return to his dominant form, a more effective fastball or a viable alternative is essential.

Ryan Helsley's over-reliance on the fastball

Ryan Helsley's 2025 season saw a change in his pitch usage that has had a negative effect on his performance. In 2025, his pitch distribution saw an almost equal split between his four-seam fastball (47%) and his slider (46%). This is a shift from his previously successful pitch mix, and the results have been telling.

While his slider remains a dominant pitch with a high whiff rate, his four-seam fastball is being punished more this season. Opponents are batting .276 against the pitch and generating an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph with a hard-hit rate of 50%. The pitch's whiff rate has also dropped to its lowest since 2022. With an ERA closer to his xERA in 2025, Helsley's numbers suggest he's performing well, but the underlying data on his fastball shows a vulnerability that could be exploited. Adjusting his pitch mix back to a more slider-heavy approach, as he successfully used in 2024, could help him regain his elite status as a closer.

Sean Manaea's pitch selection challenges

Sean Manaea has also had a challenging 2025 season. The lefty has primarily relied on his four-seam fastball, changeup, and sweeper. While his fastball can reach impressive speeds, its effectiveness has been inconsistent. Manaea's tendency to get hit hard is a concern, with a high number of hard-hit balls. His pitch selection has sometimes lacked the unpredictability needed to keep hitters off balance.

To become more efficient, Manaea could benefit from a more strategic use of his sweeper and changeup, creating more deception and making his fastball less predictable. While his overall numbers for the year look decent, his FIP suggests he's been slightly lucky, and a change in his pitch distribution is crucial to sustaining success and improving his overall performance.