The New York Mets will be buyers at this year’s trade deadline. They are in serious contention for the National League East title, and could be just a few pieces away from solidifying their chances for a deep playoff run. One team that will definitely be a seller is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite a strong pitching staff, the Pirates are nearly 20 games out of the National League Central. They’ve already made one noteworthy move, trading Adam Frazier to the Kansas City Royals, and probably aren’t done. The Mets should pounce on these potential Pirates trade targets as the deadline approaches.
1) Mitch Keller
One Pirates pitcher the Mets have expressed interest in is Mitch Keller. Keller has become a stalwart in the Pirates’ rotation and looks to be in the midst of a career season. Keller owns a 3.48 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP across 119 innings of work. While his 18.7% strikeout rate is a career-low mark, so is his 5.5% walk rate. Keller also boasts a strong 0.68 HR/9 ratio, along with a 6.8% barrel rate.
Keller has proven to be a highly reliable starting pitcher since breaking out in 2022. He has pitched a total of 650.1 innings, while making 112 starts. He has worked to a 106 ERA+, while having a 3.81 FIP. That is a level of durability and consistency not many pitchers in baseball have displayed over the last four seasons.
There are only 11 pitchers with at least 650 innings pitched. Of those 11, ten have an ERA+ over 100. Nine have a FIP below 4.00 as well. If you want to shrink the pool even further, only seven meet all these requirements (650+ IP, ERA+ over 100, FIP below 4.00); only seven have done all of that, plus made 110 or more starts. Keller is one of those seven.
There are some downsides to Keller’s game. He has both an xFIP and SIERA hovering around 4.00. Despite a quality barrel percentage, Keller has a 90.2 MPH exit velocity. The dip in strikeouts is also something to note. However, even league-average production, combined with his reliability to deliver 30-32 starts per season, is worth it.
Another downside to Keller is that he would likely cost an arm and a leg to acquire. He is under control over the next three seasons and is owed less than $60 million across those three years. Keller is a highly reliable arm, and for a relatively low cost in terms of salary. The Pirates would likely demand a bat in the deal, like Carson Benge.