NY Mets rumors: What a Mitch Keller trade could cost using a real life example

The New York Mets are going to need to search the trade market for a starting pitcher. One name they've reportedly been connected to is Pittsburgh Pirates' right-hander Mitch Keller. If the Pirates end up shopping Keller, and the Mets are willing to pursue a trade with them, they'll likely have to surrender something worthwhile. This mock trade could be enough for the Mets to acquire Keller.

Mitch Keller is in the midst of his best season yet. He has already tossed 106.2 innings and has a 3.64 ERA, 3.24 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP. While his 18.9% K% is currently a career low, his 5.8% walk rate is a career best. Keller has done great at limiting both home runs and quality contact. The right-hander has just a 0.59 HR/9 ratio and a 6.7% barrel rate, which is in the top 70th percentile of all pitchers this year.

Keller is about as reliable as you can get. Since the start of the 2022 season, Keller is one of only 14 pitchers with an ERA+ over 100 and at least 600 innings pitched. He has a 105 ERA+ and 637.2 IP. Keller has made 29, 32, and 31 starts in each of the last three seasons. His FIP since 2022 sits at a solid 3.80.

Acquiring Mitch Keller is likely going to cost a pretty penny for the NY Mets.

For Keller, the Pirates would be receiving 2 Mets prospects. The headliner would be Jett Williams. The top prospect is batting .278/.491/.467 with a .391 wOBA and 155 wRC+. Williams is hitting for a good amount of power, with six home runs in 307 plate appearances and an .188 isolated slugging percentage. He's also been a huge base-stealing threat, with 24 steals in 29 attempts. Williams is only striking out 21.6% of the time with an outstanding 15.6% walk rate.

He is a top ten Double-A hitter this year, ranking 10th in OPS, 11th in wOBA, and 6th in wRC+. He is also 15th in walk rate and slugging percentage, and 8th in OBP. Williams is playing in a very pitcher-friendly environment, where the league average OPS is just .678. He can play shortstop, second base, and center field, with a good enough glove to stick at an up-the-middle position. Williams also has the potential to be a speed/power threat, however could be part of a logjam in the Mets' infield.

Along with Williams, the Mets would be sending right-hander Brandon Sproat. Sproat isn't having an outstanding year, working to a 5.05 ERA, 5.04 FIP, and 1.41 WHIP across 73 innings at Syracuse. He has just a 17.3% K%, and has walked 11.3% of opponents. The one positive is that he is keeping the ball in the park and preventing quality contact. Sproat has a 0.86 HR/9 while holding opponents to a 5.2% barrel percentage. Sproat is still topping out at 100 MPH as well. The right-hander has also strung together a few decent starts, hopefully kicking off a season rebound.

That may seem like a lot, but Keller's profile is very similar to that of a trade that happened a few years ago. When the Toronto Blue Jays acquired Jose Berrios at the 2021 trade deadline, they sent the Minnesota Twins two top prospects: Austin Martin, their 2020 first round pick a consensus top 50 prospect heading into the season, and former Mets second round pick Simeon Woods Richardson, who was a consensus top 100 prospect who fell out of rankings the following year after an unimpressive season. Both ranked as top-five prospects in the Jays' system at the start of '21, with Martin at number one and SWR at number four. MLB Pipeline put both in a similar light, as Martin was their second-best prospect and SWR was also ranked fourth.

Like Keller, Berrios regularly made 30+ starts and produced both a better-than-average ERA and FIP for the Twins. Keller has more control remaining than Berrios did, who was projected to become a free agent after 2022 at the time of the deal. Keller still has three whole seasons of control left after this year. He may be more expensive, as he's owed about $60 million in total, but for a pitcher with Keller's durability and solid performance, three years at $60 million is a bargain. 

Berrios isn't the only recent example of a pitcher with comparable qualities to Keller to get moved for a high price tag. When the Seattle Mariners traded for Luis Castillo, they surrendered a top 20 prospect at the time in Noelvi Marte. He wasn't the only noteworthy name in that deal, as the M's also included Edwin Arroyo in the same trade, who was (and still is) a top prospect in the Cincinnati Reds' farm system.

Keller likely isn't going to come cheap. He's a good, durable pitcher, and the most recent instances of his caliber have not gone for a low cost. Most of these deals have included at least two top prospects. The Mets are going to have to part ways with at least one of their top three prospects, and another top ten prospect in their farm system. A package headlined with Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat is very similar to what the Blue Jays gave up to acquire Berrios.