3) The Mets had good reason not to match the Dodgers' five-year $182 million offer to Blake Snell
One of the opening salvos of the offseason festivities was the Los Angeles Dodgers inking ace Blake Snell to a five-year $182 million contract. At face value, this is a player whom the ace-less Mets should've been all over, especially given their right-handed heavy rotation.
Snell, 32, is a two-time Cy Young winner winning the award once in each league. When he's on, he's one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. So why are we glad that the Mets didn't give Snell this contract?
With Snell, there's more than meets the eye. For one thing, outside of his two Cy Young seasons, he hasn't topped 129.1 innings pitched in any season. A variety of injuries over his nine-year career have made counting on him to take the ball every fifth day a daunting proposition, and that lack of durability is something that holds him back from being a true ace.
On top of that, Snell is the type of pitcher who relies on hitters chasing out-of-the-zone offerings to generate strikeouts to be successful. For his career, he's struck out an impressive 11.23 hitters per nine. The flip side of that is patient hitters can take advantage of him and get on base via a walk. He owns a career BB/9 of 4.06 and has posted three seasons in his career over 4.8 BB/9.
Already 32 years old, a five-year deal takes him through his age 37 season. With only two fully healthy seasons out of the nine he's already played the averages would say that he's only good for one fully healthy year over the next five. Age makes that even less likely.
His age also doesn't bode well for his pitching style. His stuff is nasty which is why he's able to get away with such a high walk rate, but what happens if his fastball isn't sitting in the mid-90s anymore and/or he loses a bit of bite on his breaking pitches as the years go on? Well, if that were to happen he wouldn't appear nearly as dominant.
An average annual value of $36.4 million is an awful lot to spend, and if you're going to lay out that kind of cash you better be sure you're getting a bonafide ace. A starter who doesn't consistently make 30 starts a year and log 180+ innings can't be considered that even if he is dominant when he takes the mound.
Because of all that uncertainty surrounding his future, we're glad the Mets didn't blow up their payroll for Blake Snell.