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2 surprise NY Mets players whose strong starts are the real deal, 1 bound regression

The Mets have had plenty of strong starts to open 2025. But these two are likely the real deal, while this third player has regression written all over him.
ByNoah Wright|
St. Louis Cardinals v New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals v New York Mets | Jim McIsaac/GettyImages
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Griffin Canning will continue to be successful

The Mets picked up Griffin Canning on a one-year contract this winter. The former Los Angeles Angels right-hander was coming off a rough 2024 season, posting just a 5.19 ERA, 5.26 FIP, and 1.40 WHIP across 171.2 innings of work. Canning walked 8.9% of opponents with a sub-par 17.6% strikeout percentage and a 1.63 HR/9 ratio.

Canning didn’t originally look to have a good shot at a rotation spot heading into spring training. But injuries to the likes of Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, and Paul Blackburn opened the door for Canning. So far, he’s run away with the rotation spot, putting up career-best numbers in multiple stats to open 2025.

It has only been 21 innings, but Canning has a 3.43 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 1.33 WHIP. Canning still has a poor 11.4% walk rate but has seen his K% tick up to 23.9%. Home runs, which have typically given Canning trouble in the past, haven’t been an issue this year, with a 0.86 HR/9 ratio. But what makes this performance sustainable?

Canning currently has a career-best 53.6% ground ball rate, which is currently the best of any starter. This has helped compensate for his poor 92.7 MPH exit velocity and has led to a solid 7% barrel rate. Most ERA estimators say that Canning isn’t overperforming either. He has a 3.90 SIERA, 3.59 xFIP, and 3.85 xERA.

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