NY Mets rotation battle: 2 who are in, 1 who'll go to the bullpen

The New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza recently addressed three pitchers currently on the roster: Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill, and Paul Blackburn. According to Mendoza, the Mets are considering putting two in the rotation and one in the bullpen. Nothing has been finalized yet, and no formal decisions have been made, but if the Mets opt to go this route, which of these three would work best in the rotation and the bullpen?

Which Mets pitchers are in the rotation and who is in the bullpen?

Megill had the best season between these three pitchers in terms of their performance on a rate basis in 2024. He only tossed 78 innings last year, missing all of April and most of May with a shoulder strain. When the right-hander returned to the mound, he put up a respectable 4.04 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 1.31 WHIP.

Megill's perpherials could set him up for a 2025 breakout. He struck out 27% of batters he faced and put up a sub-1.00 HR/9 for the first time in his big league career at 0.92. Both his 88.9 MPH exit velo and 8.6% barrel rate were career bests. Megill saw a huge uptick in Stuff+ from only 93 in 2021-2023 to 103 last season. Megill also put up a sub-4.00 xFIP (3.79) and SIERA (3.81). His opponent's OPS the first two times through the order is only .721.

So far in spring training, Megill has not done poorly. In 11.2 innings, he has only allowed five earned runs but has struck out 13 batters with just a pair of walks allowed. Only one of the hits Megill has allowed has been a home run as well. 

Meanwhile, 2024 was a rough season for Griffin Canning, as he put up a poor 5.19 ERA, 5.26 FIP, and 1.40 WHIP in 171.2 frames. His 17.6% K% was the first time he's put up a below-average strikeout rate. Canning has always shown some weakness against home runs and had a 1.63 HR/9 last season. He also had an unimpressive 8.9% walk rate.

But he's not that far removed from a decent 2023 campaign when he had a 4.32 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP. He struck out far more batters with a career-high 25.9% K% and only handed out a free pass 6.7% of the time. He was still prone to home runs with a 1.56 HR/9 and career worsts in exit velo (91 MPH) and barrel percentage (9.8%), but he also had a 3.80 SIERA and 3.82 xFIP. Canning also had a 97 Stuff+ rating, compared to only 89 in 2024.

Canning needs to get over his early-game struggles. Last season, he had a 6.97 ERA through the first two innings of the game. Opponents had a .943 OPS and .397 wOBA against him in innings one and two. But Canning would settle down after that. He owned a 4.19 ERA and held opponents to just a .697 OPS and .308 wOBA from the third inning onwards.

Blackburn only tossed 75.1 innings for the Oakland Athletics and New York Mets last season. The one-time all-star only posted a 4.66 ERA, 4.63 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP. He was great at limiting walks with a 6.6% BB% but struck out just 18.7% of batters with an HR/9 of 1.43. His 87.6 MPH exit velo was slightly better than average, but his 8.2% barrel percentage was slightly worse than the league average. Blackburn's 92.2 MPH fastball velocity in 2024 was a career-high, but he has just a 90 Stuff+ for his career. 

But, like Canning, he also had some poor numbers early in the game. In the first inning, Canning had an 8.39 OPS, while batters knocked him around the yard for a 1.036 OPS and .437 wOBA. But after his first-inning woes, Blackburn had a 3.97 ERA while keeping opponents to a quiet .684 OPS and .299 wOBA.

Carlos Mendoza should give one of the rotation spots to Tylor Megill. He has the best numbers, the best stuff, and is the only one who averages 95+ MPH with their fastball. He's the only one of the three that didn't trend downward in 2024. However, the final spot should go to Griffin Canning.

One major positive that Canning brings over Blackburn is workload. Canning tossed 171.2 innings in 2024, more than either Megill or Blackburn have ever pitched in a single season. Canning's 2023 was better than any season Blackburn has ever had as well. Blackburn could benefit the most from a move to the bullpen as well. He is the only one of these three pitchers with a Stuff+ not over 90 for his career. Pitching in shorter stints would hopefully let him add another tick of velocity. 

Between these three right-handers, Carlos Mendoza should open 2025 with Megill and Canning in the rotation. The team has more to gain with these two in the rotation. Blackburn would work better in the bullpen, too. He needs the uptick in velo and stuff more than any of the other options the Mets have available to them.