2 NY Mets players poised for a breakout year in 2025, 1 we should give up on

NY Mets' catcher Francisco Alvarez may become a star

Catcher is such a physically demanding position that it's hard to find players who truly excel both with the bat and with the glove. The dearth of top-tier talent at the position generally leads good teams to look for defense first options, essentially conceding a spot in their lineup.

Entering his age-23 season, Francisco Alvarez has a good shot at becoming one of the premier two-way catchers this season. Last season, Alvarez's 102 wRC+ ranked 16th among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances. Defensively, his fielding run value was in the 65th percentile according to Baseball Savant's StatCast metrics.

Digging deeper into those defensive metrics, Alvarez's framing ranked in the 88th percentile. His pop-time was in the 83d percentile, helping him control the run game despite a less than stellar arm as his caught stealing runs metric was about average ranking in the 52nd percentile. The one area with the glove he struggled with was pitch blocking where he ranked in just the second percentile. Still, those defensive metrics coalesced for an above-average performance behind the dish.

With the bat is where Alvarez is even more intriguing. His 2023 and 2024 seasons highlight different skills that if he can put them together, project to an exciting offensive package.

His 2023 line, .209/.284/.437 wasn't awe-inspiring, but his 25 homers and .222 ISO showed serious power, especially for a catcher. In 2024, he posted a .237/.307/.403 line with just 11 home runs and a step back in ISO at .166.

In both seasons his walk rate and K rate were consistent – 8.0 BB% and 26.1% K% in 2023, 8.8 BB% and 25.1% K% in 2024 – but what changed was his batting average on balls in play. In 2023, his BABIP was just .222 versus .291 in 2024. That change cost him some power but increased his batting average and on-base percentage to the point where the total package was worth slightly more – a 102 wRC+ in 2024 versus a 97 wRC+ mark in 2023.

What drove that difference was an increase in contact rate on pitches in and out of the zone, combined with a flattening of his launch angle, dropping from 12.5 degrees in 2023 to just 6.9 degrees in 2024. The result was many more line drives that went for base hits, but fewer fly balls that left the park. In general, line drives are more conducive to hits than any other contact type, but home runs are usually a by-product of fly balls.

If Alvarez can continue to mature as a hitter, which is a good bet as he just recently turned 23 on November 19th, and improve his ability to lay off pitches outside the zone he'll be able to tap into both his power and an acceptable batting average and on-base percentage combination.

The Steamer projection systems envisions Alvarez's 2025 season in such fashion, projecting a .237/.314/.438 line with 22 home runs, a .202 ISO, and a .267 BABIP which equates out to a 113 wRC+ performance. For context, a 113 wRC+ would've ranked 6th among all catchers with at least 300 plate appearances last season.

That's elite offensive production from behind the dish paired with above-average overall defense. Such performance would likely merit All-Star consideration and be immensely valuable at a position where finding a quality bat and glove within the same player is a rare feat. Because of that, Alvarez might be the most compelling player on the team.