2 pitchers the NY Mets should trade their top prospects for, 1 who is almost worth it

The New York Mets could definitely soon join this trend of starting pitchers swapping teams.
Trades involving good or even greater starters has started to heat up. The big trade of the Winter Meetings was the Chicago White Sox sending 2024 all-star Garrett Crochet to the Boston Red Sox for four prospects, including two of the best prospects in baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates also dealt Luis Ortiz, along with two other pitching prospects, to the Toronto Blue Jays for standout rookie Spencer Horwitz.

The Mets’ rotation certainly has some question marks. Frankie Montas will look to rebound after a rough last two seasons, and the Mets will also look to move Clay Holmes into the rotation after being used as the NY Yankees’ closer the previous three seasons. The Mets also have some players in the system to deal as well.

Brandon Sproat could headline a deal for a high-end pitcher with control remaining. Sproat was the Mets’ second-round pick in 2023. The right-hander is coming off a strong season where he had a 3.40 ERA, 3.94 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP across 116.1 innings pitched. Sproat had a healthy 28.3% K% with a respectable 9.1% walk rate and 1.08 HR/9. Sproat started the year at High-A before climbing the minor league ladder and ending the season at Triple-A. Baseball America ranks Sproat as their 61st-best prospect, while MLB Pipeline is even more bullish, placing him at the 40th spot.

Another top prospect the Mets could move is Jett Williams. Williams is coming off a down season, where he only had a .656 OPS, .322 wOBA, and 97 wRC+ in just 147 plate appearances. Williams suffered from wrist issues early in the year before undergoing surgery in June. It took from April until late-August for Williams to return. Although it was mostly a lost season for the infield prospect, Williams did have a strong 2023, with a 145 wRC+ in a much larger sample size of 534 plate appearances. Williams is still a highly regarded prospect by both MLB Pipeline (no. 52) and Baseball America (no. 46).

If the Mets were to include both in a deal, they could probably get something pretty valuable back. So who are some starters with high-upside and control remaining the Mets might be able to net if they packaged both Sproat and Williams together in a trade?

1) Logan Gilbert is worth it

The Seattle Mariners might look to move at least one of their top starters this off-season, and Logan Gilbert is a possibility to get traded. Gilbert has silently been one of baseball’s best pitchers since debuting in 2021. He has the 12th most innings pitched and has averaged about +3.0 bWAR a season over the last three years. But his 2024 campaign is his best thus far in his young MLB career.

Gilbert pitched a career-high 208.1 innings, working to a 3.23 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and 0.89 WHIP. Gilbert has always limited walks at a strong rate, but this year, his 4.6% BB% was the 5th lowest in the league and the lowest of his career. Another career-best was Gilbert’s 27.4% K%. Gilbert’s 1.12 HR/9 rate was about league-average and was in the 61st percentile of barrel rate.

Another big positive is that ERA estimators put Gilbert in a great spot. In 2022 and 2023, he had a 3.81 SIERA and 3.71 xFIP. While neither were bad remarks, his 3.19 SIERA and 3.11 xFIP from this past season are significant improvements over his previous work. Throughout his career, Gilbert has been just as effective on the road as in Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, with a 3.51 ERA/1.02 WHIP at home and a 3.69 ERA/1.11 WHIP on the road.

Gilbert is under control for three more seasons via arbitration. He is estimated to make about $8.1 million in arbitration for the 2025 season. Next year will be his age-28 campaign as well. Gilbert has proven to be one of MLB’s most underrated arms, who is reliable for nearly 200 innings a season.