NY Mets starting pitcher pairing of Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas is too ambitious

David Stearns put on a blindfold, spun around, and randomly selected Sean Manaea and Luis Severino to join the New York Mets rotation last season; or so it seemed. Each was coming off of several down and/or injury prone seasons. As fans, we understood the goal was to take on short-term risks that could pay off big and not have any negative effect on the team beyond 2024.

Things couldn’t have gone much better for the Mets with those two. And now they appear eager to do the same thing with Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas in 2025.

Holmes and Montas each joined the team recently with some of those same questions as Manaea and Severino did a year ago. Holmes is a guy who’ll be transitioning back into a starter’s role while Montas is more in the same mold as Manaea was—coming off of a mediocre season that ended better than it began. Sliced or spun in any direction, fans should have hesitance of history repeating positively with these two. There are only so many worthwhile gambles that can pay off so well.

The Mets signing Clay Holmes or Frankie Montas would have been easy to buy into, not both

It’s like when you win $2 on a scratch-off lottery ticket and instead of getting your two bucks you buy another lottery ticket. This is what it feels like with Holmes and Montas. A gamble last year on Manaea and Severino made sense considering the state of the team. Expectations for 2025, however, should have the Mets aiming a little more ambitiously for surer things in the rotation.

A lot of consideration surely went into the decision to sign each of these players who, by the end of free agency, should look like financial bargains in comparison to their peers. The results might not yield the same thoughts. We’ll have to wait until 162 games have been played to truly know.

All players, pitchers in particular, come with this heavy risk of injury. Lucas Giolito signed with the Boston Red Sox last offseason and was hurt in the spring. He was heavily considered as a Mets free agent target. It’s something that can happen to anyone whether they have a history of getting hurt or not. It's not possible to fully prevent. What the Mets can avoid is a player who underperforms which Holmes and Montas certainly seem capable of doing.

What Holmes can accomplish as a starter next year is impossible to predict. Is he more dominant like Reynaldo Lopez, average like Jordan Hicks, or disastrous like A.J. Puk? Montas isn’t changing anything about his role. He’s simply trying to stay healthy and recapture how well he has pitched in the past. He has been everything from a Cy Young contender to a fifth starter on the verge of getting bumped out of the rotation.

Fans adverse to risk shouldn’t be falling in love with these two free agent signings too quickly. You don’t have to taste acid reflux in your mouth at the thought of the pair together on the 2025 roster. You absolutely shouldn’t be booking a Valentine’s Day dinner for both either.