1 reason the NY Mets win the NL East, 1 reason the Phillies do, 1 it’s the Braves

The NL East figures to be one of the most competitive and exciting divisions in baseball. The new-look New York Mets will hope to avoid the troubles that derailed their quest for the division crown (and ultimately a playoff berth) last season, while the reigning Philadelphia Phillies look to fend off their challengers, and the Atlanta Braves look to bounce back from their bitterly disappointing 2025 campaign.

We've already seen some shifting in how these clubs are viewed based on who you ask; the projections have all three clubs in the mix for the division title. A swing here or there could make all the difference in the chase for first place in the NL East. Here's one thing that stands out as the potential difference maker for each team.

One thing that needs to happen for each of the Mets, the Phillies, or the Braves to win the NL East crown

The Mets will win if Luis Robert Jr. plays like he did in the second half of 2025

There are a lot of things that could tip the scales in the Mets' favor, ranging from Freddy Peralta dominating and elevating the rest of the starting rotation to the new back-end duo of Devin Williams and Luke Weaver rebounding from their disappointing 2025 seasons to simply staying healthy.

But the biggest thing that would separate the Mets from the rest of the pack is Luis Robert Jr. New York had a fearsome offense last year, but it was at times top-heavy, which led to droughts that cost the club games. The additions of Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco help, given their steady presence and contact-focused approaches, but it's Robert Jr. who could be the real difference maker.

It would be wonderful to see him return to his 2023 form, but he doesn't have to get all the way back there to be effective. Lost in his second consecutive 84 wRC+ performance at the plate was the fact that he was legitimately good in the second half of last year. From the All-Star break on, Robert Jr. slashed .298/.352/.456. If he can put forth some approximation of that, while also staying healthy and continuing his defensive excellence in center field, he'll be one of the division's most valuable players and true lineup lengthener. If not, the offense could run hot and cold again and destroy the Mets' chances.

The Phillies will win in their depth steps up

The Phillies did look for upgrades, getting in the mix for Bo Bichette and kicking the tires on Ketel Marte, but ultimately, running it back with Kyle Schwarber was the most siginificant thing that they did.

Philadelphia is deep, both in terms of its lineup and its pitching staff, with the starting rotation standing out in particular. However, the loss of Ranger Suarez looms large, and the Phillies will be counting on top prospect Andrew Painter to help fill that void. Painter posted a 5.40 ERA over 106.2 Triple-A innings last season.

Elsewhere, they'll be counting on rebound candidate Adolis Garcia, the platoon of Bryson Stott and Edmundo Sosa, and the ascension of another top prospect in Justin Crawford to potentially make impacts. If this depth steps up, the Phillies will separate themselves from the pack, but if they struggle, we'll see them fall back.

The Braves will win if the injury-luck pendulum swings in the other direction

Injuries are a part of the game, but Atlanta had particularly bad luck with health last season. It wasn't just the number of injuries, either, but the key stars who got hurt, like Ronald Acuña Jr., Chris Sale, and Austin Riley, all missing time as well as many others.

To say that the Braves had bad luck would be an understatement, and with a "normal" amount of injuries, they figure to be in the thick of the race. But if the injury gods smile on them, they'll have a good chance to pull away.

Things are already off to an inauspicious start, with starting shortstop Ha-Seong Kim set to miss four to five months following a freak hand injury. That said, Sale might still be the best pitcher in the division, and Acuña Jr. is a legitimate MVP candidate. Atlanta will need both, as well as other key pieces, to stay healthy all season.