1 reason to buy, 1 to sell what MJ Melendez has given the NY Mets so far

MJ Melendez wasn't supposed to be an important piece of the New York Mets' season. In fact, were it not for Jared Young tearing his meniscus in mid-April, he may still be suiting up for Triple-A Syracuse. Fortunately for Melendez and the team, he has made the most out of his opportunity thus far, posting a .852 OPS over his first 55 plate appearances of the season.

For a player with a career OPS of .690, it raises the obvious question of whether this is an anomalous stretch or one that can legitimately help the Mets dig themselves out of the bottom of the NL East where they currently reside and elevate them into a playoff spot. As with all things in baseball, the answer depends on what information you find most compelling.

On one hand, MJ Melendez is posting better quality of contact numbers than any other season in his career

Because he spent much of 2025 in Triple-A, it makes sense to compare his 2024 quality of contact numbers in the majors against what he has done so far, albeit in a much smaller sample.

His bat speed didn't change too materially but an increase of 0.8 mph is still a step in the right direction. What's more important is that he has been able to get his barrel to the ball far more frequently this year, resulting in major jumps in hard hit rate and average exit velocity.

For comparison, an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph is on par with Bo Bichette this year while an average exit velocity of 95.8 mph places Melendez right between Munetaka Murakami (95.6 mph) and Oneil Cruz (95.9 mph). Of course, those players are qualified and Melendez isn't but it explains what a jump in almost 5 mph can do for your slugging results.

On the other hand, MJ Melendez is whiffing more than ever and is still getting beaten by fastballs

It's a good thing that he has been able to do damage when he does make contact because it's not a very common occurrence. He has a whiff rate of 37.5% and a zone contact rate of just 66.2%, both placing him comfortably near the bottom of his peers.

This is a problem that he has had his whole career and it's primarily because since being promoted to the majors, he has never been an effective four-seam hitter, a meaningful obstacle seeing as it's the most common pitch in the sport. Against four-seam fastballs this year, he has a whiff rate of 42.0%.

The more often he faces big-league pitchers, the more often they'll be able to hone in on his weaknesses, resulting in more arduous at-bats. Furthermore, although his numbers are solid now, one could also argue they're the result of a few lucky swings rather than meaningful improvements in approach. His BABIP of .423 is inherently unsustainable and his expected numbers are far more pessimistic than his actual numbers.

If he's somehow able to maintain his production at the plate, then it's a great turn of events for an organization that likely perceived him as nothing more than minor league depth. If he begins to regress, the team can still rely on another option in their farm system until Jared Young returns to the field.

Regardless of what may happen in the future, he has already been an important boost to the offense so far and his contributions shouldn't be taken for granted, especially given how the season has been going for the Mets. With just 15 wins and a 12.5 game deficit in the division, they'll need every advantage they can get, no matter how temporary or unexpected.

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