1 NY Mets player on this year's Naughty List who'll be on the Nice List in 2026

The road that Sean Manaea has traveled as a New York Met thus far hasn't been very long, but it's been quite the winding path. His first iteration as a Met made him a fan favorite. The second iteration saw his stock plummet.

In 181.2 innings in 2024, Manaea's 114 ERA+, .202 batting average against, and 1.084 WHIP spoke for themselves. Down the stretch in August into September, he went through a stretch of eight straight games in which he pitched at least 6.2 innings, putting the rotation on his back. In the postseason, he won two games during a magic carpet ride to the NLCS.

But once Manaea stepped into 2025, everything changed. A season marred by injury, unanswered questions, and unmet promise (no pun intended), he nosedived from Ace to liability in a matter of months.

But, as we approach Christmas, Santa is re-reviewing his list. And checking it twice, I heard. And as fast as Manaea fell out of favor, is as quick as he can return to everyone's good graces.

We need a hero

The offseason is far from over, but as it currently stands, the Mets' pitching rotation is in desperate need of some overperformance. While I imagine David Stearns is planning some degree of facelift, we're uncomfortably close to singing Bonnie Tyler's 1984 hit single on opening day instead of "Take Me Out to the Ballgame."

Sure, there is some promise. The youth piling out of the minor leagues is reminiscent of the early 2010's when Matt Harvey and company were supposed to rescue the franchise. But there is a decided lack of proven dominance outside of them.

Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong give us a glimpse into the near future. But in the immediate future, relying on more than one or two of them is a dubious proposition at best.

As far as the vets go, David Peterson, despite an all-star appearance last year, should realistically be a back-end of the rotation guy on a championship-level team. Clay Holmes is similarly fine, but with the expectations his role currently demands, fine is not enough.

The bullpen is its own problem. Though Devin Williams is hopefully a positive addition, the rest of the guys largely remain to be seen.

The landscape of arms is far too barren if the Mets are to compete for a World Series. And that's where the former Ace of the staff comes in.

He spent time in the bullpen to end 2025, and a loose body in his elbow kept him from staying on the field. While he saw a decline in most of his numbers, perhaps no category saw a greater decline than innings pitched, dropping from 181.2 all the way down to 60.2. He says that his elbow concerns, which evidently didn't require surgery, are a thing of the past.

And while he mostly saw declines, some metrics offered hope that 2025 was just a tough-luck season, and not a trend.

The first thing to look at is his arm strength. Despite his age and health, he finished 2025 with an exit velocity of 89.8, a full 1.2 higher than 2024, and his highest since 2022. So it's not like his arm is falling off. So that's – good.

Looking at his ability to get the ball over the plate and get guys to sit down, his strikeout and walk numbers were as good as they've ever been. His 28.5% strikeout rate, 11.13 strikeouts per nine, 6.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 1.78 walks per nine were all career bests.

And while his 5.64 ERA is vomit-inducing on its face, it's not quite as bad when you dig just a little deeper. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 4.39, much lower than his ERA. This is important because FIP is designed only to measure what pitchers can control. It eliminates luck and poor defense. When a FIP is lower than an ERA, it points to a lot of bad luck. With his FIP this much lower than his ERA, it's not unreasonable to attribute some of his struggles to factors he couldn't affect.

In complete transparency and honesty, I could, of course, write an article about how Manaea's numbers last season were troubling and point to concerning trends. He did struggle; that is an undeniable fact that I'm not even trying to deny. But that's not the point.

The point is, the Mets need help anywhere they can get it. And there are fair reasons to believe Manaea will improve from last year's form. Opportunity plus promise equals the potential for a big turnaround.

If anyone is a candidate for a huge bounce back, it's Sean Manaea. Come next Christmas, he should expect more presents and less coal under his Christmas tree. Hopefully, the rest of the Mets follow suit.