1 change NY Mets free agent signing Clay Holmes must make to succeed as a starter

The New York Mets took another step toward rebuilding their rotation signing former New York Yankees reliever Clay Holmes to a three-year $38 million deal with the hopes of converting him into a starting pitcher.

The move follows a new trend that's become en vogue in the league, taking dominant late-inning relievers and putting them in the starting rotation with the hopes that their stuff plays over a larger workload. When it works out, the move is smart as relievers typically command less on the free-agent market than starting pitchers, and even if they know going into the deal that their role is about to expand the uncertainty of their future success helps keep the price down.

Holmes, who has logged 74 saves over the past three seasons in the Bronx will now be the latest entry in this experimental way to acquire top tier starters on a budget. However, in order for him to have success one thing much change.

The Mets must help Clay Holmes expand his repertoire

Most relievers end up in the bullpen because they fail as starters initially. The greatest reliever of all time, Mariano Rivera, was a failed starter who couldn't turn the lineup over, but in the bullpen, he could rely on just one pitch to dominate hitters en route to a Hall of Fame career.

The same holds true for Holmes who made four starts for the Pittsburg Pirates in 2018 before being put in the bullpen full-time for the rest of his career to date. Last season, Holmes was essentially a two pitch pitcher with StatCast data courtesy of FanGraphs recording him throwing his sinker 56.5% of the time and his slider 43.5% of the time.

If Holmes is to become a successful starter, however, he's going to have to introduce another pitch to his repertoire, and a change-up would be an excellent choice. As a right-handed sinker-slider pitcher, he's at a natural disadvantage against lefties as his slider doesn't have the same type of deception as it does against right-handed batters. However, adding a change-up would give him another offering to throw to lefties where the break would mimic that of his sinker while adding deception via the change in speeds.

For his career, Holmes has been significantly worse against lefties than righties. He has a career 4.20 FIP against left-handed batters. While he's dominated righties in his career posting 10.92 K/9 and 3.28 BB/9 against them while lefties have capitalized on his lack of deception causing his K/9 rate to fall to 7.69 and his BB/9 rate to climb to a very concerning 5.26 against them.

All of that has led to lefties posting a .250/.359/.346 line against him whereas righties slash just .209/.295/.293. Expect that only to get worse as he sees a natural reduction in velocity as a starting pitcher while also having to deal with navigating the advantage hitters have as he navigates the lineup multiple times.

The introduction of new pitches, especially a change-up, can counter act that, and if Holmes is able to successfully integrate that offering as more than just a "show-me" pitch he can have success in his new expanded role.

Fortunately, Mets' pitching coach Jeremy Hefner has some experience rebuilding veteran pitchers to take them to new heights. Hefner and the Mets helped Luis Severino introduce a sinker into his repertoire which paid huge dividends in 2024, and they helped Sean Manaea change his arm slot to great effect as well.

That experience teaching old dogs new tricks should provide some optimism that they can do the same with Holmes and make his transition from the pen to the rotation a successful one.