New York Mets: Is Zack Greinke worth an arm and a leg?

Can the New York Mets improve in 2019 by clearing some bad contracts and taking on one gigantic one? I think they can.

The New York Mets want to increase payroll (a smidge) and they want to win in all in 2019, or so Jeff Wilpon says. As usual, he and the Mets are long on wishes and short on details, other than not ruling out making a run at anyone or anything. When I hear that, I imagine Jeff Wilpon racing The Freeze from the same starting line.

So to kickstart the Mets into running mode, I propose a big money deal that will improve the team, and give them more options to add necessary pieces to achieve their stated goal. And they don’t have to trade Noah Syndergaard or top prospects to make this work.

Mets trade Jay Bruce, Jason Vargas, Juan Lagares, and any two of Jacob Rhame, Tyler Bashlor, Gerson Bautista, or Paul Sewald for Zack Greinke, Archie Bradley, and Jarrod Dyson

Here’s the money part (see the end of the article for individual salary details):

Mets add:

2019 $40 million
2020 $35 million + Bradley’s arbitration (I am estimating $6 million)
2021 $35 million + Bradley’s final arbitration year (estimated $10 million)

Mets subtract:

2019 $30 million
2020 $15.5 million (Bruce + buyouts for Vargas/Lagares)

So for $10 million more in 2019, the Mets significantly improve the rotation with Greinke over Vargas, leaving deGrom, Syndergaard, Greinke, Wheeler, and Matz as the rotation.

They improve the outfield by replacing injury-prone Lagares with a younger, faster, cheaper Dyson, and by clearing Jay Bruce, who was a reach from the beginning (see image above).

And they significantly improve the bullpen by adding the talented Archie Bradley as the closer, while giving up two of a gazillion young, hard-throwing, and unproven righties.

This move will leave payroll room in 2019 for a free agent catcher such as Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, or Martin Maldonado, and a super-utility player such as Marwin Gonzalez or Daniel Descalso.

The Mets will pay for this move in 2020 ($25.5 million added to payroll) and 2021 ($41 million), but the good news is that Yoenis Cespedes‘ $29.5 million salary for 2020 will be taken off the payroll in 2021.

Why in the world would Arizona do this?

The Diamondbacks have made it clear they want to reduce their payroll from the giant leap forward in 2018. Basically, removing Greinke accomplishes that task, but of course, they can’t just give him away, and no team will just take on his remaining salary of $104.5 million.

DIAMONDBACKS PAYROLLS

Year 25-man Opening Day 40-man Year End (rank)
2018 $131,565,116 $ ()
2017 $ 93,120,200 $115,868,790 (23)
2016 $ 98,172,683 $114,826,495 (23)

Should the Mets ask for Paul Goldschmidt in this deal?

While it would incredible to add Goldy to the Mets in 2019, the Diamondbacks have already said they don’t want to bundle their two stars, because they believe that they will be able to get a lot more for Goldschmidt alone.

From the Mets standpoint, I’m reasonably certain the D’backs would ask for Peter Alonso in any Goldschmidt deal and as great as he is, I’d rather have six years of Alonso than one year of an aging Goldschmidt.

Incentives for Greinke if the Mets are on his 15 team no-trade list

Zack Greinke is a smart guy. He loves baseball and he knows more about it than most players. He has helped out with scouting and drafting on occasion.

If I were running the Mets, I would offer him a position in the player development department when he retires as an incentive to approve this trade.

The nitty-gritty

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money details

Arizona trades to the Mets:

Zack Greinke

2019 $31.5 million + $3 million signing bonus
2020 $32 million + $3 million signing bonus
2021 $32 million + $3 million signing bonus

Archie Bradley

2019 first time arbitration eligible (predicted $2 million by MLB Trade Rumors)

Jarrod Dyson

2019 $3.5 million

Mets trade to the Diamondbacks

Jay Bruce

2019 $13 million
2020 $13 million

Jason Vargas

2019 $8 million + $2 million buyout for 2020

Juan Lagares

2019 $9 million + $0.5 million buyout for 2020

Two of Jacob Rhame, Gerson Bautista, Paul Sewald, Tyler Bashlor

Major league minimum