Mets: Sizing up Jacob deGrom’s Cy Young competitors in the NL East

Someone from the National League East will win the 2018 Cy Young. If not New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom, the honor will go to Max Scherzer or Aaron Nola.

Unless something drastically changes, the 2018 National League Cy Young winner is coming out of the National League East. New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom has the ERA and several other statistics on his side, but is he truly the number one contender?

Now at 8-7 following his victory on Saturday versus the Philadelphia Phillies, deGrom is finally over .500 again. The lack of run support and bullpen help has continually hurt him all year long. To ensure he got the win in his most recent outing, deGrom pitched all nine frames and allowed a single unearned run.

A day earlier, though, the Mets saw one of deGrom’s stiffest competitors. Aaron Nola of the Phillies is right up there in the Cy Young conversation. Also fighting him is the two-time reigning champion, Max Scherzer. The ace of the Washington Nationals already has three Cy Young trophies on his bookshelf. As the leader in many pitching categories again this year, he looks like a legitimate threat to deGrom.

Nobody has pitched more innings, faced more batters, or thrown more strike threes in the National League than Scherzer. His Baseball-Reference page is about as bold as it gets. He’s on pace for the best year of his career, toppling previous highs and lows.

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deGrom’s 1.71 ERA is the one underlying factor which may give him the edge of Scherzer. ERAs can fluctuate fast. One bad outing from Scherzer and deGrom becomes a bigger favorite. The same can happen in reverse. Without other statistics in his favor, the ERA is all deGrom can cling to.

Meanwhile, Nola’s 14-3 record has given him a league-leading .824 winning percentage. In any other season, he might be the runaway for the award. Up against deGrom and Scherzer, he looks like a bronze medalist.

Again, a horrific start or a string of average ones could change this.

I’m predicting this year’s Cy Young vote has less to do with statistics and more to do with gut feeling.

Does deGrom get the nod for guts? Will Nola receive extra consideration as a member of a team that has far exceeded expectations? Will Scherzer’s numbers, overall dominance in multiple categories, and stellar year in a down season for the Nationals best everything else?

It’s a tight race with a month and a half left to go.

Unlike the MVP, a team’s record shouldn’t matter. Unlike years past when pitchers were expected to go deeper into games, wins shouldn’t factor into the decision nearly as much.

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The Cy Young should go to the best pitcher. This means the guy who gives his team the greatest chance to win. Based on his ERA, nobody has done this better than deGrom.