Two Mets wins at home is a must to avoid an Everest ascent of a Game 5 in Philly

There are only four outcomes for the NLDS matchup between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies can clinch in Game 4 at Citi Field or at home in Game 5 back in Philadelphia. The Mets can win the next two and clinch in Game 4 in front of the hometown fans or bring the series back to Citizens Bank Park and win in Game 5.

Those are the existing conclusions. The last scenario about the Mets going into Game 5 with their life on the line exists as a possibility but feels far from reasonable.

Leaving Philadelphia with one win is victory enough. Going back there again has all of the signs of a lost series for New York.

The Mets can’t play around and need to win the next two to avoid a deciding Game 5

Both teams would prefer to just win the next two games and give themselves a little extra rest before the NLCS begins. 

Two side observations about the playoffs, if you’ll allow me for a moment. Are they always this exciting or are the Mets just playing with a flair for the dramatics? Has anyone else felt like the playoffs are going by quickly and yet the days drag on forever in anticipation? Having joined Rising Apple in 2018, I’m a little out of the loop as to how this whole playoff thing works. They’ve already won more postseason games in the last week than they did in the previous 6 years.

Facing Zack Wheeler all over again in Game 5 brings added trouble for the Mets. Whether the Mets again go with Kodai Senga with David Peterson behind him or ask for Luis Severino to return on regular rest, the pitching matchup will favor Philadelphia in their ballpark.

An all-hands-on-deck situation for both teams in a deciding Game 5 where everyone is available makes it hard to predict exactly how each manager would use their bullpen. Aaron Nola on short rest. The same for Sean Manaea. Neither team has the luxury of thinking about the tomorrow when the today matters so much.

Mounting a Game 4 and 5 win after losing Game 3 isn’t feasible for logistic thinkers. If the 2024 Mets have taught us anything, thinking about them with however many years of baseball knowledge you have isn’t right. Odds defying menaces since June, they are the kind of team that would pull off something insane like this.