Rangers vs. Mets prediction and odds for Monday, Aug. 28 (Expect high-scoring game)

The New York Mets have fallen into last place in the NL East this season, the complete opposite of where many expected them to be in 2023.

New York has a tough matchup on Monday against the Texas Rangers, who have squandered an AL West division, entering this matchup behind the Seattle Mariners.

Texas would love to avoid falling into the loaded wild card race in the American League, but it’ll need a win on Monday with Jon Gray on the mound.

Rangers vs. Mets probable pitchers for Monday, Aug. 28

• Rangers: Jon Gray (righty) – 8-7, 3.76 ERA
• Mets: Tylor Megill (righty) – 7-7, 5.54 ERA

New York counters with Tylor Megill in this game, but he has struggled in 2023, which may make it tough to bet on the Mets.  

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So, with that in mind, let’s break down the odds – and my best bet – for Monday’s contest: 

Rangers vs. Mets odds, run line and total

Rangers vs. Mets prediction and pick

While the Mets are a really hard team to trust in the betting market right now, I am going to bank on them to score some runs in this matchup. 

Jon Gray has not been as good as his ERA suggests in 2023, posting a Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.13. He ranks in the 26th percentile in expected batting average against and is in the 41st percentile in expected ERA. 

Since the start of July, the regression for Gray has been clear. He’s posted a 4.84 ERA in eight starts, allowing at least four runs in five of those outings. 

That’s a great floor for this OVER bet, especially since he’s the strong of the two starters in this game. 

Megill has struggled at the Major League level this season with a 5.54 ERA and 5.29 FIP. In four starts in August, the Mets youngster has allowed 16 runs (15 earned) and 31 hits in 19.2 innings of work. He has a 6.86 ERA over that stretch. 

That won’t get it done against a Texas team that has been one of the best offenses in baseball in 2023. 

With the Mets offense showing some life (12th in OPS over the last 15 days), I’ll gladly take the OVER given the pitching matchup. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.