The New York Mets have lost each of their two games against the Texas Rangers by a single run. Can they avoid the sweep in today's series finale?
I'm not so sure about that. In fact, I think it's best not to bet on a side at all in this game but instead bet on the total.
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Now, let's dive into the odds and my best bet for today's series finale.
Rangers vs. Mets odds, run line, and total
Rangers vs. Mets prediction and pick
Instead of betting on the Mets (or the Rangers), the pick I like for this game is the OVER 9 at -125.
Dane Dunning gets the start for the Rangers and I don't fully trust him to continue posting numbers as good as his 3.36 ERA indicates. He enters tonight's game with a 4.11 FIP (Field Independent Pitching), which tells me regression is on the horizon for him.
That regression may have already started to show as he has allowed three or more earned runs in three of hist last four starts. If he allows at least three earned runs again tonight, we're going to be well on our way to cashing the OVER.
Denyi Reyes gets the start for the Mets, and his first start since being added to the Mets rotation did not go well. He gave up eight hits, four walks, and five earned runs in just 4.2 innings pitched against the Braves.
As much as I wish I could pick the Mets to pull off the upset, I just can't do it with Reyes on the mound. Instead, the smart bet is the OVER. Let's sit back and root for runs tonight.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!