Phillies vs. Mets prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 30 (Trust New York at home)

May 17, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) reacts
May 17, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) reacts / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies continue to hang around second place in the NL East behind the dominant Atlanta Braves and the NL Wild Card and would love to separate a bit from one another.

New York returns home after a poor series in Colorado last weekend, but have emerging rookie Kodai Senga on the mound as well as Rookie of the Year candidate Francisco Alvarez set to start behind the plate. The team will face Ranger Suarez and the Phillies as Suarez continues to battle injuries and looks far from his best self to start 2023.

Here are the odds for Tuesday's series opener:

Phillies vs. Mets odds, run line and total

Phillies vs. Mets prediction and pick

Senga has had an up-and-down rookie season, centered around his volatile control on the mound with nearly six walks per nine innings, but he is starting to settle in after shutting down the Rays to one earned run in six innings and three earned runs against the Cubs in his last start over five innings.

The 30-year-old rookie is striking out nearly 12 batters per nine innings and has allowed only nine earned runs in 22 innings. He'll face a Phillies lineup that is 19th in OPS over the last 15 games, and the team's inability to avoid strikesouts will plague them all game. The Phillies have the ninth highest strikeout rate this season at nearly 24%.

While the Mets aren't elite at hitting lefties, Suarez's struggles are too pronounced to ignore. After starting the season on the IL, Suarez hasn't pitched more than five innings through three starts and has allowed at leaast three earned runs and five hits in every outing. Suarez is also lacking a punch out pitch, which is going to be an issue against a Mets team that is top five in walk rate and srikeout rate. The team is disciplined at the plate and will find ways to tag Suarez with runners on base.

Ultimately, Suarez isn't stretched out enough to justify being a small underdog on the road against someone with ah high ceiling like Senga.

I'll lay it with the Mets.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.