It was a shaky start to the year for the San Diego Padres, but now they’re rolling. They are only 6-4, but just took three straight from the Braves in Atlanta. That’s a real statement early in the year and they can make an even bigger one if they keep the winning going up in Queens against the New York Mets.
The Mets are 5-5, but it’s hard to know what to make of them because all five of their wins are against the Miami Marlins. They got swept in Milwaukee, but are at home for this series with another National League contender.
It’s a matchup of big names on the mound with Max Scherzer going for New York and Yu Darvish for San Diego. The Mets are favorites at home.
Padres vs. Mets odds, run line and total
Padres vs. Mets prediction and pick
It’s a matchup of big names, it might not necessarily be a matchup of great pitchers anymore. Yu Darvish was very good in his first start, 5.0 innings, three hits, one run, four walks, and three strikeouts. Not amazing, but at 36-years-old he should have another great year. 38-year-old Max Scherzer however, might finally be over the hill. It scares me to say that, but he’s given up eight earned runs over 11.1 innings in his first two starts with eight strikeouts and four walks, but also four home runs given up.
Scherzer is getting hit very hard so far, with an average exit velocity of 93.2 and a hard hit percentage of 51.4%. There’s already a story in the New York Post wondering if we should change our expectations for Scherzer now. I’m here to tell you emphatically no we should not.
Last season, Scherzer had a 2.29 ERA, a 2.62 FIP, a 30.6% strikeout rate and a 4.2% walk rate in 145.1 innings pitched. He’s had two bad starts and his numbers are completely out of whack because of the home runs he’s given up. He’s still the same guy. I don't care if he’s 38, I need a little more evidence than two rough starts. I’m backing Mad Max and you should too.
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