2 Mets needs that must be addressed at the Winter Meetings, 1 that can wait
Where will David Stearns set his priorities at the upcoming Winter Meetings?
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The New York Mets enter the 2023 Winter Meetings having made a few key additions. Luis Severino has been added on a one-year "prove it" contract, which is a very low-risk high reward. Joey Wendle is a more experienced version of Luis Guillorme having been an all-star back in 2021. Austin Adams and Kyle Crick are solid pieces to compete for the 7th and 8th slots in the bullpen.
Though the Mets have made these additions, this will not be enough to make them a contender in 2024. Severino was not good last season having finished with a 6.65 ERA in 89.1 innings pitched and is a liability to make even 20 starts, let alone pitch a full season. If all goes according to plan, Wendle should just be a bench piece and give depth to the middle infield. Adams and Crick are also not locked to make the team on opening day given their short track records of success. With that being said, which areas of the team must be addressed before the Mets brass leaves the Winter Meetings, and which one can wait?
1. The Mets need to come away from the Winter Meetings with a better bullpen
Quality relief pitchers have generally signed around the winter meetings the past few seasons. In 2017, relief pitchers signed for a total of 25 years at $187.75 million. The Mets have not shied away from this trend having signed Anthony Swarzak in 2017, Jeurys Familia in 2018, and David Robertson last year during or in the days succeeding the Winter Meetings. Around baseball, the biggest names have signed during this time as well including Bryan Shaw, Drew Pomeranz, and Kenley Jansen.
The Mets currently have two locks for the late innings in the bullpen: Edwin Diaz and Brooks Raley. Drew Smith is best suited as a depth piece until he regains his form from the 2022 season. Phil Bickford, Grant Hartwig, and Sean Reid-Foley are best suited to compete for long-relief roles. This leaves rookie manager Carlos Mendoza with few options to close out a one-run lead in the 8th and 9th innings.
The Mets must leave the Winter Meetings with at least one additional arm added to the bullpen. Relief pitchers are the most-risky investment in baseball considering all the bad contracts handed out the past few offseasons. The more risky proposition, however, is to leave the Winter Meetings empty-handed knowing all of the quality relievers have come off the board. If the trend continues from the past few offseasons, expect the Mets to strike a multi-year contract.
2. The Mets need a reliable starting pitcher
Even though the Mets have added Severino, they simply do not have enough pitchers to make it through a full season. The rotation currently has one pitcher who can be relied upon to make at least 25 starts: Kodai Senga. Jose Quintana missed the first half of last season due to injury and the tandem of Joey Lucchesi and Tylor Megill are best suited for swing roles.
Having a reliable starting pitcher does not mean having the star of free agency. Yes, the Mets will continue their pursuit of Yamamoto, but this is not a guarantee for the 2024 rotation. At the 2013 and 2015 Winter Meetings, Sandy Alderson left having signed the most reliable starting pitcher in recent memory: Bartolo Colon. He was a guarantee to make 30-plus starts a season and save the bullpen from having to get more than 9 outs a game. Though Big Sexy never had the flashiest of numbers, his starts were always quality and saved us from having to witness the hideous alternatives.
If David Stearns sticks to his word of rebuilding the rotation, he must strike early with a quality starting pitcher. With many already coming off the board, expect many rumors to surface on potential fits for the Mets. The expectation for this slot in the rotation should not be a contract worth $200 million- it simply must be a quality pitcher who can make his start every time out.
3. The Mets can wait on improving their outfield depth
Outfield depth is a top priority for Stearns and company this free agent period. Currently, the Mets have three major league options on the 40-man roster: Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, and D.J. Stewart. Jeff McNeil may find himself in left field if Ronny Mauricio earns the second base job, but this is not a guarantee. Drew Gilbert and Jett Williams are close but have been ruled out to make the club on opening day.
Though the Mets are bereft of outfield depth, they do not need to make this a top priority at the Winter Meetings. 4th outfielders can be found in January and February for cheaper, short-term contracts. Last offseason, Tommy Pham signed in late January for one year at $6 million. The Mets traded for Keon Broxton from the Milwaukee Brewers in January 2019. Heck, Stewart was signed to a minor-league contract last offseason. Simply put: Stearns is not making this role a top priority at the Winter Meetings, though he will not shy away if the right move becomes available.
The Mets do not have to make their biggest splash at the Winter Meetings- they just need quality baseball players to fill certain roles. Though rumors will always swirl with Steve Cohen at the helm, the best moves sometimes are the ones that go unnoticed. We should not draw conclusions if the Mets leave the Winter Meetings without Jordan Montgomery or Yamamoto. All 26 spots on the roster need to matter for the Mets to contend in 2024, not just the ace of the staff.
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