How many games do the Mets need win in the second half to make the playoffs?

The Mets have to win at an elite pace to have any shot at the playoffs.
Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets
Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets / Jim McIsaac/GettyImages
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The 42-48 New York Mets have 72 games left on their 2023 schedule and each one counts. The National League East is unattainable but a Wild Card spot is something they could grab as long as they reach far enough.

How many Mets wins will it take to play beyond the scheduled 162? Estimates have 87 wins as a good guess as to what the third-wild card club will need.

The NY Mets will need to go at least 45-27 in the second half to make the playoffs

It’s going to take 45 wins for the Mets to get to the 87-win mark and there isn’t much room for error. Only 27 losses are allowed.

The 45-27 record comes out to a .625 winning percentage. The Tampa Bay Rays, at 58-35 right now, have a .624 winning percentage. The Mets would have to play at a pace slightly better than they have this season in order to see postseason baseball.

Funky things could happen. Along with getting hot, several of the other teams chasing a wild card berth need to get cold. A collapse by the Philadelphia Phillies. The Miami Marlins waking up from this fantasy. The San Francisco Giants going winless in August. All of it can go a long way toward helping the Mets sneak into the playoffs without having to play at such an amazing pace.

If it’ll ease any doubts of yours, the 2022 Mets at 101-61 had a .623 winning percentage. Figuring out what worked last year and doing that could be enough.

Those doubts, however, are going to linger until the Mets actually show they’re capable of playing at a pace matching last year’s. It’s not as if they’ve been plagued by injuries. The starting lineup has been as healthy as we could’ve asked for. Jose Quintana has been the only starting pitcher absent.

The second-half schedule isn’t all that brutal. In July, the only team currently positioned in a playoff spot they play are the Los Angeles Dodgers right after the break. August includes three on the road against the Baltimore Orioles, a four-game series at Citi Field versus the Atlanta Braves, three more on the road against Atlanta, and three in Queens versus the Texas Rangers. It’s during this stretch we’ll know whether or not September games will matter.

An August 1 trade deadline will have already passed by then and the Mets will have bought or sold or maybe done a little of both or nothing much at all.

Sisyphus had an easier challenge pushing the boulder up the hill. Everything must go right for the Mets in the second half. The march to 45 begins.

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