Mets vs. Cardinals: A 70 point run differential difference says this should be easy

The New York Mets have to deal with a one-game series on Monday against the St. Louis Cardinals who aren’t as good as their record says they are. Sorry, Bill Parcells. Leave that quote for the gridiron.

The Cardinals should be considered the 2024 version of the 2023 Miami Marlins. Last year’s most inexplicable playoff club, the Marlins did so with an 84-78 record and -57 run differential. Winning lots of one-run games was how they managed this.

St. Louis goes into Monday with a 57-55 record. A game and a half behind the Mets in the NL Wild Card standings, they are far worse than their record. A -42 run differential ranks as the fourth-worst in the National League. The 70 point difference between the Mets at +28 is laughable yet a credit to how they’ve been able to stay in it this year.

The Mets are significantly better than the Cardinals and they need to prove it

The main difference between the Mets and Cardinals is offense. The clubs have actually allowed almost the same number of runs. Mets pitchers have given up 509 versus 510 by the Cardinals. A total of 69 more runs scored by New York is where they’ve measured up differently.

As difficult as it is to fathom on some days, scoring hasn’t been a problem for the Mets. Their 537 runs is the fourth-most in the National League. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks (575), Los Angeles Dodgers (552), and Philadelphia Phillies (540) have crossed the plate more.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have scored just as many runs as the Pittsburgh Pirates. The 468 times they’ve crossed the plate is one more than the Atlanta Braves who’ve relied on pitching this season. It’s still bottom of the barrel in the league.

Paul Goldschmidt is having a worse year than Pete Alonso. Nolan Arenado isn’t doing much better. Pitching has performed poorly in the second-half. Their 74 runs allowed is tied for ninth-most. The Mets, by comparison, have given up 57 runs in as many post-All-Star Games.

Everything seems to be in favor of the Mets in Monday’s game. Even the Cardinals had to travel from Chicago after playing the Sunday night game. With a tie-breaker on the line, this is one of the most crucial games left on the schedule and it should be easier than they’ll probably make it look.