Responding to a Tyler Mahle trade idea from the Reds

Tyler Mahle has become one of the names talked about as a potential addition to the New York Mets rotation for the 2022 season. Over at Blog Red Machine, the Cincinnati Reds site on Fansided, Drew Koch put together a trade idea to help both clubs.

The trade would send Mahle, a youngish starting pitcher with upside, to the Mets for J.D. Davis and two prospects. Those prospects are pitchers Robert Dominguez and Calvin Ziegler.

Is this the kind of trade the Mets should pull the trigger on?

A Mets trade for Tyler Mahle will cost them at least one good prospect

Mahle for Davis is a nice start to any trade between these two ball clubs. The Reds can conceivably field a capable ball club without him in 2022. Davis gives them a third baseman/outfielder/DH with a nice bat and not much defense. Think of him as a replacement for losing Nick Castellanos but far cheaper and maybe not nearly as good.

But the trade needs to go beyond the one-for-one swap. Given the current starting pitcher market, the Mets will need to pay with at least one notable prospect. In this idea proposed by the Reds’ site, it’s Dominguez AND Ziegler. Is the cost too much for the Mets to bear?

The chances we see Dominguez and Ziegler pitching in the Mets rotation a few years from now together and dominating is slim. Depending on where you look, they are anywhere from the number 10 (Dominguez) to around 15 prospect in the club’s system. As highly regarded as they may be among Mets minor leaguers, parting with both is a much better proposition than the alternative.

Koch reached out to me to work on a few ideas for a deal and was met with a virtually slammed door when the idea of Matt Allan and J.T. Ginn came up. Pivoting to lesser prospects, I think this is shaping up to be a more realistic trade.

However, the Mets should aim to get a little more in the deal. If it’s costing them a pair of prospects in the 10-15 range, a guy in Cincinnati’s 20-25 range added on could suffice.

Davis doesn’t’ have much of a role on the Mets other than part-time player. Mahle, an inexpensive pitcher with a few years of control left, would be traded at a premium price right now. His 15-8 record and 3.72 ERA combined in 2020 and 2021 is promising. Add in his age, 27, and the Mets could pick up a player with youth on his side and some upside at that.

If Koch wants to revise his deal and add in a little more spice or subtract one of the prospects, I think we have ourselves a deal.