5 under the radar pitchers the Mets could target before the trade deadline

The trade deadline is approaching fast and the New York Mets have moves to make. I recently wrote about under-the-radar position players the Mets could pursue, and there are a few under-the-radar arms here that could help them too.

Here are five under the radar pitchers the Mets could target before the trade deadline.

NY Mets under the radar trade target: Jorge Lopez

Jorge Lopez has been around for awhile now, but he’s never been as dominant as he is right now. Lopez has made 40 appearances for the Orioles and pitched 44.1 innings. He’s allowed just 26 hits, eight earned runs, 15 walks, and he’s struck out 53 batters. His ERA is 1.62, his FIP is 2.97, his WHIP is 0.93, and his ERA+ is a crazy 248.

Lopez is great at limiting hard contact. He is in the 92nd percentile in hard hit rate, 88th percentile in xBA, 84th percentile in xSLG, 83rd percentile in strikeout rate, 81st percentile in xwOBA and xERA, 79th percentile in barrel rate, and 78th percentile in average exit velo. Hitters just can’t square him up.

Lopez throws five pitches, but really relies on three. He throws his sinker about half the time, and it’s a hard one that averages just under 98 miles per hour. His main secondary pitches are his curveball and changeup.

So what’s led to his sudden dominance? Well, the velocity on all of his pitches is up over the last couple of years. His sinker averaged 93.5 mph in 2020, and it’s at 97.7 mph this year. He’s also getting more movement on his pitches, with his vertical and horizontal movement rising across the board. His sinker and curveball are both elite pitches with run values of -6.

Lopez is 29 and comes with two more years of control. While the Orioles have certainly outperformed any expectations, they have virtually no chance of making the playoffs in the loaded AL East, so they should sell some pieces that aren’t part of their future. It will probably take at least two years for all of their top prospects to come up, so Lopez would be a free agent by the time their window fully opens anyway.

NY Mets under the radar trade target: Cole Irvin

Cole Irvin has been one of the more underappreciated starters in baseball over the last couple of years. 

The crafty lefty has largely diminished in the game, but that’s exactly what Irvin is. He’s made 16 starts and pitched 95.1 innings this season. He’s allowed 86 hits, 34 earned runs, 19 walks, and struck out 62 batters. His ERA is 3.21, his FIP 3.97, his WHIP is 1.10, and his ERA+ is 115.

“Swirvin’ Irvin” throws six pitches. He throws his four-seamer 31% of the time, sinker 25%,  changeup 22%, curveball 17%, slider 4%, and he has a cutter that he almost never uses. Hitters have a very hard time squaring up his 4-seamer in particular, as they are hitting just .187 and slugging .327 off it. It has about three more inches of ride up in the zone than average, and he’s figured out how to use it up and tunnel his secondary pitches off of it.

The Savant metrics don’t love Irvin (except for his sparkling walk rate in the 89th percentile), but he’s not the kind of pitcher metrics value. Metrics look for the high-velocity, high-spin, crazy-movement pitchers who avoid bats. Irvin is a contact pitcher who relies on a good defense behind him. 61.8% of his batted balls go in the air, but since hitters can’t square him up, almost 65% of his contact allowed is considered medium or soft.

Irvin is 28 and under team control for four more seasons, he doesn’t even hit arbitration until next winter. This would be a great depth piece to add to the Mets’ rotation.

NY Mets under the radar trade target: Matt Foster

The White Sox were supposed to contend, but might decide to sell some pieces at the deadline.

Foster has appeared in 39 games and pitched 36.1 innings. He’s allowed 33 hits, 19 earned runs, 11 walks, and struck out 37. His ERA is 4.71, his FIP is 4.13, his WHIP is 1.21, and his ERA+ is 85. 

Most of the Baseball Savant metrics have him as being about average at most things. He’s got two dark red circles: 77th percentile in barrel rate and 75th percentile in hard hit rate. He’s also only got two dark blues: 25th percentile in whiff rate and 30th percentile in chase rate. Everything else is pretty much average.

Foster has five pitches, but really only throws two. He throws his four-seamer about 49% of the time, and his slider 34%. The remaining 17% is split between his curveball and changeup. He is mostly a fly-ball pitcher, getting almost 43% of his batted balls in the air.

The White Sox were supposed to run away with the AL Central this year, but they’ve been a .500 team and currently sit in third place. They are three games back in the division and 3.5 games back from the last wild card slot. If they decide that this isn’t their year, they could sell some pieces over the next two weeks. Foster is 27 and has four years of control remaining, so that could make it somewhat expensive, but it also fills a bullpen spot for the foreseeable future.

NY Mets under the radar trade target: Scott Barlow

Scott Barlow has quietly been one of the most reliable relievers in baseball over the last two years. 

In 40 appearances and 43.2 innings pitched, he’s allowed just 30 hits, 10 earned runs, 12 walks, and struck out 44 batters. His ERA is 2.06, his FIP is 3.62, his WHIP is 0.96, and his ERA+ is 199. 

There is a lot of red on his Baseball Savant page. He is in the 98th percentile in chase rate, 94th percentile in hard hit rate, 90th percentile in average exit velo, 82nd percentile in xBA and whiff rate, and 78th percentile in xwOBA and xERA. Most of Barlow’s batted balls go on the ground (46%) and to the pull side (49%).

Barlow throws three pitches. He throws his slider 45% of the time, his curveball 32%, and his four-seamer 23%. He’s only thrown one sinker this year, so that’s not really part of his repertoire. His fastball has great spin (76th percentile), but his slider is by far his best pitch, posting a run value of -8. Hitters are hitting just .200 and slugging just .308 off of it.

The Royals aren’t going anywhere this year, and probably the remaining two years that Barlow is under team control. They could probably get a decent prospect back for Barlow, and that guy would be around when their playoff window opens.