5 Mets trade targets under 30 to swing a deal for this offseason
Improving and getting younger should be two of David Stearns' goals for the 2024 offseason
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The New York Mets finally got their man, inking David Stearns on a lucrative five-year contract to be the franchise's first President of Baseball Operations. With Stearns in place, the Mets will now head into a crucial offseason as they try and help fans forget what has been an abysmal 2023 season.
The Mets came into this season with hopes of being World Series contenders, but by late June the Mets were virtually out of it. They've had some good times, but this season has been more frustrating than fun.
Stearns should have two goals for this offseason. One, improve the team. That goes without saying. Make this team one that will at the very least compete for a playoff spot. The second goal should be to get younger. No more Scherzer's and Verlander's at the end of their careers. Get players in their prime.
Acquiring players who are still on the right side of 30 is tough to do in free agency. Sure, there's Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but outside of him, who can you really get? Shohei Ohtani might be 29 now, but he'll be 30 before you know it. The easiest way to accomplish this is via trade, and thanks to the deals the Mets made at the deadline, they now have prospects they can flip in exchange for these younger players.
1) NY Mets trade target under 30 to pursue this offseason: Corbin Burnes
It's almost too perfect, right? The Mets need an ace to pair with Kodai Senga. David Stearns, the man who drafted Corbin Burnes, is now with the Mets. Burnes has been upset about the arbitration process he's had to go through with Milwaukee, so Steve Cohen, the richest owner in baseball, can make him happy financially. What am I missing here?
Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He won the Cy Young Award in 2021, finished seventh last season, and will certainly get some consideration within the top ten this season. It's been a bit of a down year for Burnes, but he still has a 3.47 ERA in 29 starts and 179 innings of work. He's eighth in the NL in ERA, fifth in innings pitched, and tenth in strikeouts. He's done this while leading the league in WHIP. He's had a strong year.
Burnes is 28 years old and is set to enter his final year of arbitration. Considering how things have gone throughout the arbitration process between Burnes and the Brewers, and the fact that Milwaukee has never really spent much, the chances Burnes leaves the team after the 2024 season feel very strong.
Instead of risking losing Burnes for nothing more than a compensatory pick, Milwaukee can do what they did with Josh Hader and trade him away. I'm not sure if they'd love trading him to Stearns, but the Mets do have the prospect capital to make a deal like this work. If so, they'd have their one-two punch at the front of their rotation for at least four seasons assuming they can work out an extension with Burnes.
2) NY Mets trade target under 30 to pursue this offseason: Juan Soto
Burnes is the best pitcher the Mets can pursue that's under 30 this offseason, and Soto is the best hitter. The Padres have had arguably a more disappointing season than the Mets have, and will now be faced with a very difficult decision.
Soto has shown no interest in signing a long-term extension anywhere, so the Padres can risk losing him for nothing next offseason as he enters his final year of team control, or they can trade him now while his value is still quite high and get much of what they gave Washington to acquire him in the first place.
The Padres have had a down year, but that's not Soto's fault as the 24-year-old has slashed .262/.399/.494 with 30 home runs and 90 RBI. He leads the league in walks once again, and is sixth in OPS. Soto got off to a slow start this season, but has a .924 OPS since May 1 with 25 of his 30 home runs. He's been the superstar Mets fans strongly disliked when he was in Washington for five of the six months this season.
The Mets are one of few teams in baseball that would actually meet Soto's lofty free agency demands, and with San Diego having so much long-term money on the books, I'm not so sure that they're part of that group. Again, the Mets have the prospect capital, it's about whether San Diego wants to move him at all, and whether they want to move him to another team in the National League.
3) NY Mets trade target under 30 to pursue this offseason: David Bednar
We've gone through the best starting pitcher and position player available, and now let's go over the best reliever that would be available via trade. Josh Hader is the best reliever available, but he's a free agent. Bednar would be lighter on Steve Cohen's pockets for now, but would cost prospect capital. He's worth inquiring if Pittsburgh really does make him available like they did at the trade deadline.
Bednar has become one of the best closers in the game at 28 years old, but he doesn't get much recnognition as a closer for the small-market Pirates who haven't been competitive. Bednar has a 1.89 ERA in 60 appearances and 62 innings pitched. He's allowed just two home runs all year and has converted 35 of his 38 save opportunities.
The idea of the Mets trading one of their top prospects for a reliever is not one the Mets should consider, but combining some of their mid-level prospects or maybe someone like Mark Vientos in an effort to acquire him should absolutely be on the table.
Bednar is entering his first year of arbitration eligibility which means the Mets would have him for three years before he hits free agency. Bednar setting up for Edwin Diaz would make the Mets borderline unstoppable in the late innings.
4) NY Mets trade target under 30 to pursue this offseason: Luis Robert Jr.
The Chicago White Sox are a mess. They've had some movement within their front office and appear to have massive team chemistry issues. There's always the chance new Chicago GM Chris Getz blows everything up and if Luis Robert Jr. becomes available, David Stearns must pounce.
The White Sox have been another one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season, but Robert has been one of their few players to watch. We had heard all about his potential for years, but the young outfielder had failed to stay healthy for a full season. He had never played more than 98 games in his first three MLB seasons. This season he's stayed healthy, and has put up MVP-caliber numbers.
Robert is slashing .266/.319/.539 with 35 home runs and 75 RBI in 137 games for Chicago this season. He was an all-star for the first time, and has tacked on 35 doubles and 17 stolen bases. He's a true five-tool player who would excel in New York.
The 26-year-old has two more guaranteed years left of the initial six-year deal he signed with the White Sox, and has two more club option years after those worth $20 million each. He'd cost a haul, but assuming he can stay healthy, would be more than worth the hefty price.
5) NY Mets trade target under 30 to pursue this offseason: Mitch Keller
It was surprising enough to see David Bednar's name among those available in trade talks at the deadline, but seeing his teammate Mitch Keller mentioned was equally as surprising if not more so. The 27-year-old right-hander has broken out in a big way this season, and looks like a frontline starter for years to come.
Keller's numbers might not jump off the page immediately as his ERA sits at 4.04 through 30 starts, but that high-ish ERA has more to do with a couple of very poor starts than it does him being a mediocre pitcher. Most of the time Keller has been absolutely dominant.
Keller has allowed three runs or fewer in 20 of his 30 starts, and has allowed two runs or fewer 18 times. He's gone at least five innings in all but one of his starts, and has gone at least six innings 20 times. Virtually two-thirds of the time, Keller has allowed two runs or fewer in six innings or more. That's quite good.
The right-hander is tied for second in the league in starts, is fourth in innings pitched, and fifth in strikeouts. He's made at least 30 appearances in each of the last two seasons proving he can be durable, and his workload this season has proven he can be a workhorse.
Keller is only improving and has two more years of team control after this one. He's not as good as a pitcher like Burnes, but he has more control and would be cheaper. He'd make a great second or third starter in a World Series rotation.
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