4 trade targets that could replace Max Scherzer

The New York Mets got some bad news about Max Scherzer on Thursday. He will be out 6-8 weeks with a moderate-to-high grade oblique strain. The Mets now have another hole in their rotation that needs to be filled, after already losing Tylor Megill and having deGrom start the season on the IL.

Here are four starters additional starters not listed here who the Mets could trade for to fill Scherzer’s rotation spot.

Chad Kuhl is an underrated arm that could round out the Mets’ rotation.

Kuhl has started seven games and pitched 37.1 innings for the Colorado Rockies. He’s given up 31 hits, 16 earned runs, 13 walks, and he’s struck out 30 batters. His ERA is 3.86, his FIP is 3.92, his WHIP is 1.18, and his ERA+ is 119. Kuhl has yet to give up a homer, which is impressive with three of his starts being in Colorado.

Kuhl is primarily a sinker/slider guy, but he does have a changeup, curveball, and four-seamer that he mixes in. He generates excellent spin on his curveball, in the 91st percentile. He’s in the 72nd percentile in barrel rate, 65th percentile in whiff rate, 58th percentile in xwOBA and xERA, and 54th in chase rate. While he’s not a strikeout pitcher, he is capable of striking some guys out and he is almost average in walk rate (46th percentile).

The Colorado Rockies are going nowhere in the stacked NL West this year, and with Kuhl being a free agent this offseason, there’s no reason for the Rockies to keep him around if the opportunity to trade him presents itself. It won’t take much, which should make Kuhl appealing to the Mets, as well as other contending teams that need a guy to eat innings. The Rockies have a couple of other starters that could be on the move as well, in lefties Kyle Freeland and Austin Gomber, and righty German Marquez.

Martin Perez is a hot-and-cold starter who has been very hot early on in 2022.

Perez has been great for the Rangers in seven starts and 40.1 innings. He’s given up 30 hits, nine earned runs, 11 walks, and struck out 33 batters. His ERA is 2.01, his FIP is 2.42, his WHIP is 1.02, and his ERA+ is 188. 

Perez excels at limiting hard contact. He’s in the 90th percentile in barrel rate, 89th percentile in xSLG, 87th percentile in xwOBA and xERA, and 74th percentile in xBA. He’s not really a strikeout guy (46th percentile in chase rate, 41st percentile in strikeout rate, 37th percentile in whiff rate), but he is good at limiting walks (63rd percentile).

Perez is primarily a sinker/changeup pitcher, but he does like to throw his cutter as well. He does have a curveball and four-seamer as well, but they’re both show-me pitches that he uses less than 10% of the time. He has really good control of all his pitches, and if you go on his Baseball Savant page and look at his heat maps, he has the dark-red groupings that prove it.  

The Rangers are currently in third place in the AL West, behind the Astros and Angels, but ahead of the Mariners and A’s. They’re two games below .500, but six back in the division and the Mariners have been picking up steam and will likely overtake them soon. Perez is a free agent this winter, so he should be cheap and the Rangers should pull the trigger if a contender sends them an offer.

It’s a long shot that the Mets go after a big name, but Luis Castillo is available. Just saying.

Castillo started the year on the injured list, and since coming back, he’s made two starts that are oddly similar and less-than exciting. 

The overall numbers aren’t pretty. In 9.2 innings, he’s given up seven hits, six runs, four walks, and only struck out four batters. His ERA is 5.59, his FIP is 5.57, his WHIP is 1.14, and his ERA+ is 84, which is 16% below average. His first start was five innings, four hits, one walk, and three earned runs, while the second was 4.2 innings, three hits, walks, and runs.

In a very small sample size, so small that his percentile don't register on Savant, his barrel rate (10.7), exit velocity (91.9 miles per hour), and walk rate (10.3) are all the highest of his career, while his strikeout rate is the lowest at 17.9%. His velocity on all of his pitches is down around two miles per hour, but that’s not entirely surprising coming off of a shoulder injury. He is still getting back into the groove of baseball, and he’ll be fine in the long run.

The Reds aren’t doing anything this year. Realistically, they’re not doing anything until the Castellinis sell the team to owners who care about baseball. Castillo hits free agency after next season, and with no chance of getting re-signed, they might as well move him before then. His extra year of control next year only adds to the expense. This isn’t a likely acquisition for the Mets, but it would certainly be a fun one and I think Jeremy Hefner could fix him.