5 Mets trade deadline targets that have now become too expensive

Over the offseason, the New York Mets were linked to many names on the trade market. They were expected to make big moves, and they did, but there were some guys who we knew would still be available during the season. 

Let’s look at five players that the Mets were linked to in the offseason who are too expensive to trade for now.

The Mets were linked to Josh Hader throughout the offseason, but it was always a long shot that they would acquire the best closer in the game. He was not moved, and now, it’s impossible to get him.

Hader has made 13 appearances and pitched 12.1 innings. He’s allowed just two hits, five walks, and struck out 18 batters. He has yet to allow a run, with a sparkling ERA of 0.00. His WHIP is 0.57, his FIP is 1.42, and his ERA+ doesn’t even register since he hasn’t allowed a run. He leads the league in saves and games finished with 13 of each.

His Baseball Savant page is very strong. He’s in the 100th percentile in xBA, 99th percentile in strikeout rate, 98th percentile in xwOBA and xERA, 97th percentile in whiff rate, and 96th percentile in xSLG. His walk rate is pretty low (25th percentile), but that’s the only way hitters reach base against him, so that’s fine. When you throw sidearm 98 with a wipeout slider, it’s almost courteous to walk a few guys here and there.

The Brewers are currently in first place in the NL Central. They’re two and half games ahead of the second-place Cardinals, so it’s safe to say that they’re looking to add good players, not trade them away. This also means that another pitcher on the Brewers that the Mets were linked to is not available…

Eric Lauer had a breakout season last year, but he’s taken a huge step forward in 2022.

Lauer had a reputation of being a solid starter who could eat innings. He wasn’t considered flashy, but he was dependable. The Mets were linked to him as a potential fifth starter after the spring training injuries to Jacob deGrom and Taijuan Walker, plus the brief concern over Max Scherzer.

This year, he’s become flashy. He’s made six starts and pitched 34.2 innings, allowing 26 hits, 10 earned runs, eight walks, and 49 strikeouts. His ERA is 2.60, his FIP is 3.61, his WHIP is 0.98, and his ERA+ is 157. Prior to this season, his career high K/9 over a full season was 8.9. This year, it’s 12.7 and his K/BB is also a career-best 6.13.

He’s in the 95th percentile in strikeout rate, 78th percentile in whiff rate, 75th percentile in walk rate, and 70th percentile in chase rate. He does give up hard contact (17th percentile in barrel rate, 19th percentile in hard hit rate, 25th percentile in average exit velo), but since he’s not allowing many baserunners, teams are doing much damage against him. He’s given up seven home runs so far this season, and just 10 earned runs, so they’re mostly solo shots.

He made some major changes to his pitch usage that have been very effective for him. Last year, he threw his 4-seam fastball about 44% of the time, his cutter 18%, his curveball 14%, his slider 12%, and his changeup 11%. This year, his 4-seamer usage is down to 36%, and he basically scrapped his changeup (2%). His cutter (22%), slider (22%), and curveball (18%) are all up. He’s become a breaking ball pitcher, and it’s working for him.

Zac Gallen has been one of the best pitchers in the big leagues so far this season.

Gallen has become a must-watch starter. In six starts, he’s tossed 34.1 innings and allowed just 18 hits, four earned runs, five walks, and he’s struck out 35 batters. His ERA is 1.05, his FIP is 2.25, his WHIP is 0.67, and his ERA+ is 389. He leads the league in WHIP, ERA+, and H/9 with 4.7. 

His Baseball Savant page is one of the prettiest I’ve seen. He’s in the 96th percentile in xBA, xwOBA, and xERA, 93rd percentile in xSLG, 90th percentile in walk rate, 88th percentile in average exit velocity, and 85th percentile in hard hit rate. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, so those numbers are basically average, but he excels at inducing weak contact and keeping runners off the bases.

He is another guy who has made some change to his pitch mix, although not as starkly as Lauer. He’s throwing his slider about 6% less, and basically abandoned the sinker he threw less than 1% of the time. He’s throwing his cutter and curveball about 3% more each.

At 18-16, the Diamondbacks are 4th in the NL West, just half a game ahead of the 5th place Rockies. While the team isn’t bad, they have no chance of beating the Giants, Dodgers, and Padres in the division. What makes Gallen expensive is that he still has three years of control left, and he hasn’t even hit arbitration yet. They likely see him as their ace of the future, and it would take an eye-popping offer to pry him away.

Ty France is among the league leaders in contact hitting.

One of my takes during the offseason was that the Mets should’ve traded Jeff McNeil and replaced him with someone like Ty France. I was just done with McNeil’s horrible attitude and poor performance in 2021. Plus, even in McNeil’s prior good seasons, his metrics were terrible (and some still are this year). McNeil has been really good, and so has France, at least offensively.

France has been a thorn in the side of pitchers all season. He’s slashing .331/.401/.475/.876 with five homers, four doubles, 15 runs scored, 25 RBI’s, and an OPS+ of 165. He leads the league in plate appearances (158) and hits (46). 

His baseball savant page is an interesting mix of really good and really bad. His strikeout rate is in the 99th percentile, his xBA is in the 97th percentile, his whiff rate is in the 92st percentile, his xwOBA is in the 86th percentile, and his xSLG is in the 75th percentile. On the opposite end, his spring speed is in the 9th percentile, his OAA is in the 10th percentile, his barrel rate is in the 21st percentile, and his chase rate is in the 40th percentile. 

In summary, he’s hitting the ball really softly in the right places with almost no power, few strikeouts, fewer walks, no defense, and no speed. It’s an interesting mix of contact and discipline, without much else.

He’s become an important part of the Mariners’ lineup, and they’re a good team, as we just saw. They’re currently in third place in the AL West, but expect them to make moves at the deadline to get better and contend for a wild card spot.