Thursday Thought: Projecting the Mets starting pitching throughout the playoffs

The playoffs are finally here, and for the first time since 2016, the New York Mets are in it. After a disappointing September that saw the Mets cough up the division lead, the Mets will host the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card series starting tomorrow night. 

Between the Wild Card, Divisional Series, Championship Series, and World Series, there is a lot to figure out in terms of pitching. Given recent performance, it’s logical to assume that Taijuan Walker has beaten out Carlos Carrasco for the final spot in the rotation. But how will the Mets stack up against their opponents?

Let’s project how the Mets will line up their pitching throughout the playoffs.

I will attempt to lay out every possible scenario starting tomorrow with the Wild Card and ending with the World Series. Obviously things are subject to change based on injury, weather, or other unforeseen factors, but here we go.

Mets Wild Card pitching projection: 

• Friday 10/7: Max Scherzer vs. Yu Darvish
• Saturday 10/8: Jacob deGrom vs. Blake Snell

If game three is necessary:

• Sunday 10/9: Chris Bassitt vs. Joe Musgrove

Mets Division Series pitching projection against the Dodgers:

If the Wild Card goes TWO games:

• Tuesday 10/11: Chris Bassitt vs. Clayton Kershaw
• Wednesday 10/12: Taijuan Walker vs. Julio Urias
• Thursday 10/13: Travel day
• Friday 10/14 Max Scherzer vs. Tyler Anderson

If games four or five are necessary: 

• Saturday 10/15: Jacob deGrom vs. Tony Gonsolin/Andrew Heaney
• Sunday 10/16: Chris Bassitt vs. Clayton Kershaw

If the Wild Card goes THREE games:

• Tuesday 10/11: Taijuan Walker vs. Clayton Kershaw
• Wednesday 10/12: Max Scherzer vs. Julio Urias
• Thursday 10/13: Travel day
• Friday 10/14 Jacob deGrom vs. Tyler Anderson

If games four or five are necessary:

• Saturday 10/15: Chris Bassitt vs. Tony Gonsolin/Andrew Heaney
• Sunday 10/16: Taijuan Walker vs. Clayton Kershaw

Mets Championship Series pitching projection:

For the NLCS and World Series, I won’t include the opponent’s pitching because the Mets won’t know who their opponent will be until after the NLDS and ALCS, respectively, if they make it this far. The Braves would be the favorite, but the Cardinals would be a possibility as well. I don’t see the Phillies beating both out of the last Wild Card slot to make it this far.

Note: I wrote these with the Wild Card series going two games. If the Wild Card goes three games, each starter will be moved up one game.

If the Wild Card goes TWO games and the NLDS goes THREE games:

• Tuesday 10/18: Jacob deGrom
• Wednesday 10/19: Chris Bassitt
• Thursday 10/20: Travel day
• Friday 10/21: Taijuan Walker
• Saturday 10/22: Max Scherzer

If games five, six, or seven are necessary:

• Sunday 10/23: Jacob deGrom
• Monday 10/24: Chris Bassitt
• Tuesday 10/25: Taijuan Walker

If the NLDS goes four games, every starter would be moved up one game. If the NLDS goes five games, every starter would be moved up two.

Mets World Series pitching projection:

There’s too many “what ifs” to lay everything out at this point. What if the Wild Card goes three, and the NLDS goes four, and the NLDS goes six? What if the Yankees or Blue Jays upset the Astros? It’s too much to figure out, and you probably don’t want to read any more pitching layouts anyway. You get the order by now: deGrom, Scherzer, Bassitt, Walker, repeat.

I’ll say this though: the Mets are in a good position regardless of who starts game one. Whoever starts it will also pitch game five. Whoever starts game two will likely also pitch game six, if necessary. And whoever starts game three will pitch game seven, again if necessary. 

However, things change in the World Series. Let’s say Walker is lined up to pitch game seven, don’t be surprised if they bring deGrom and/or Scherzer back on short rest and piggyback them straight to Edwin Diaz.

That’s a lot of pitching to think about. It’s both exciting and exhausting with a rotation as good as the Mets’. I’m excited to see them in the postseason again, so let’s see how they do!