5 Mets storylines to watch in the second half of the season

To say the 2023 New York Mets have been a disappointment would be a gross understatement.

With championship expectations high, the team found itself under .500 at the All-Star break with slim hopes of even making the postseason. Almost all the characteristics that led the 2022 team to 101 regular season wins – clutch hitting, quality pitching, and strong fundamentals – have regressed considerably just a year later, despite many of the same players and personnel in place.

Yet not all hope is lost, and there are still plenty of reasons to follow the Mets in the second half, regardless of where they finish.

NY Mets storyline: Will the Mets be trade deadline buyers or sellers?

When the calendar flipped to July, the Mets were clearly trending towards being sellers at the trade deadline – an indictment of a disastrous first three months that had them closer to last place in the N.L. East than the playoffs.

A 6-2 start to July, however, put the Mets at 42-48, seven games back of the final N.L. Wild Card spot heading into the All-Star break. While there remains a significant hill to climb, a late playoff run is at least still possible.

Realistically, the Mets probably need to be around or above .500 and a game or two closer to that playoff spot to justify being buyers. That would translate to a 10-5 or 11-4 record over their final 15 July games – not impossible, but not easy.

If this doesn’t happen, look for guys like David Robertson and Tommy Pham – players on one-year deals who have performed at or better than par – to be prime trade candidates for future prospects. There’s always a chance others like Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander could be dealt too, but given the size and complexity of their contracts, they seem less likely to move.

Still, it’s possible the organization makes a last ditched attempt at saving this once-promising season. In his comments to the press on June 28, Steve Cohen indicated the organization was preparing for multiple scenarios while also citing how so many recent postseason teams have come back from early season struggles. Even if there’s a remote chance at keeping their championship hopes alive, it’s hard to imagine this regime letting that opportunity pass.

NY Mets storyline: How good can Francisco Alvarez be? And could he make history?

Speaking of Alvarez, the Mets’ new starting catcher has begun living up to the hype as one of baseball’s top 10 prospects heading into the year. After slumping to a .151 batting average and .534 OPS in June, Alvarez became a catalyst for the team’s 6-2 stretch to close out the first half, hitting .379 with five home runs over those eight games.

Still just 21 years old, Alvarez entered the break with more home runs than any catcher in MLB, putting him on pace for a bit of history in the process. Only Hall of Famer Johnny Bench hit more home runs as a catcher in his age 21 season (or younger) with 26, a mark Alvarez seems poised to surpass if he remains healthy.

History aside, Mets fans should remain focused on the bigger picture for Alvarez and whether he can truly become a cornerstone piece for the franchise. The early returns are encouraging – and perhaps more so on defense, where Alvarez has more than held his own. His strike framing metrics and pop time to second base both ranked in the top third of the league at the break.

The Mets have had their share of All-Star catchers throughout their history, although that hasn’t been the case in recent years. With more experience, Francisco Alvarez is a prime candidate to resurrect that trend.

NY Mets storyline: Will the real Jeff McNeil emerge?

On a team littered with disappointing performances, perhaps none has been starker than that of Jeff McNeil. Last year’s batting champion enters the second half more than 70 points off his 2022 mark.

While that dip alone jumps off the page, it’s far from the only red flag. McNeil hasn’t been making solid contact in general, highlighted by a barrel percentage that ranks in the bottom five percent of the league. His power has also evaporated, with just three home runs and an expected slugging percentage that ranks bottom ten.

While his defensive versatility remains a plus, McNeil has also regressed in the field. His outs above average are neutral, a year after finishing at plus-8. He committed three errors in the first half after logging four all last season.

The numbers go on and on, but in short – McNeil has essentially reverted to where he was in 2021. His final numbers that season are eerily similar to where he is trending this year, begging the question: which version of Jeff McNeil have the Mets locked up long term?

At the time, McNeil’s career-low 2021 season was seen as an aberration, considering his track record until that point and reaffirmed by a bounce back 2022 campaign. If he continues struggling over the final few months this year, however, there will be real questions as to how consistent he can be going forward.

NY Mets storyline: Will Edwin Diaz make a late season return?

Even before the 2023 season began, there was a dark cloud cast over the Mets’ championship hopes when Edwin Diaz suffered a torn patellar tendon in the World Baseball Classic in March. At the time, it seemed all but certain Diaz would miss the entire MLB season.

Since then, however, Diaz has been quoted as saying he hopes to return before the season ends. Updates on his rehab have at least indicated he is progressing as well as could be expected.

Unsurprisingly, the Mets have sorely missed Diaz in the bullpen. While David Robertson has excelled as the closer in his place, the trickle-down effect of not having Robertson for the seventh and eighth innings has stretched the bullpen thin and exposed the Mets’ lack of depth beyond their top relievers. It is just one of many factors that has contributed to a first half team ERA of 4.39, ranking in the bottom half of the league.

Of course, the likelihood Diaz returns to the majors this season hinges, at least in part, on whether the Mets remain in the playoff hunt come September. Even so, there will likely be personal motivation for Diaz to return regardless, if only to get back on a mound and avoid a longer layoff until next season.

Whether it contributes to a late season playoff push or not, the Mets would benefit both on the field and, frankly, from a morale standpoint to see their All-Star closer defy the odds and make it back this year.