The state of the Mets starting rotation

Major League Baseball’s lockout may have put a deep freeze on the hot stove, but it gives us plenty of time to take stock of what was (and probably still is) the top offseason priority for the New York Mets: starting pitching.

It was not long ago – back before MLB turned players into generic silhouettes – when owner Steve Cohen and new General Manager Billy Eppler dramatically reshaped a team in desperate need of a facelift. A flurry of signings culminated in one of the most impactful and improbable additions in Mets history, when future Hall of Fame pitcher Max Scherzer was lured to Queens on a historic three-year deal.

Scherzer gives the Mets instant credibility after what was a tumultuous first year under new ownership, both on and off the field. At a macro view, it firmly cements their renewed position as a big market club willing to do whatever it takes to win a championship. On the field, it gives them an all-time dream duo at the top of the starting rotation with Jacob deGrom; combined, the two accounted for four straight National League Cy Young Awards from 2016-2019.

All of this said, the question remains: do the Mets have enough starting pitching to be a championship contender in 2022?

Let’s dissect the rotation in different parts to see who the Mets currently have, what each one’s role could be next year, and who could still be targeted in either free agency or trade if they need to add another arm or two.

Probable Locks: Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco

Walker and Carrasco are as close to rotation locks as anyone not named deGrom or Scherzer. Even so, both carry major question marks that could put their spots in jeopardy if things don’t immediately fall the right way.

Walker’s first year as a Met was truly a tale of two seasons. After a dominant All-Star first half (7-3, 2.66 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 94 2/3 innings), the former first round pick’s season fell apart with a winless second half (7.13 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 64 1/3 innings).

Carrasco, meanwhile, never seemed to get his first season in Queens on track. Injuries delayed his debut until July 30, when a first pitch home run to the Reds’ Jonathan India authored a narrative of first inning struggles that stayed with the right-hander through each of his 12 starts. Carrasco finished 1-5 with a 6.04 ERA and 12 home runs surrendered in just 53 2/3 innings.

Of the two, Walker’s outlook seems a bit clearer with more upside. His late season swoon could be partially attributed to a sharp increase in workload – he eclipsed 150 innings for the first time since 2017 and just the third time in an injury-shortened nine-year career. If Walker can stay true to what brought him success early in the year – limiting walks, avoiding big innings, and working the plate, particularly with his sinker – he profiles as a solid, high-upside fixture in the rotation.

Carrasco, on the other hand, enters the final year of his contract with more uncertainty. It’s fair to wonder if he can revert to the pitcher who posted a 3.27 ERA for Cleveland from 2014-2018, or if the soon-to-be 35-year-old’s struggles last year signal further regression. Assuming the answer lies somewhere in the middle, the Mets should proceed with Carrasco as more of a back-end option.

Bottom Line: While each has a high ceiling, Walker and Carrasco leave the Mets too many question marks to preclude another mid-tier rotation signing.

Pivot Pieces: Tylor Megill, David Peterson

Perhaps no two roster spots can pivot in more directions next year than those presently occupied by Megill and Peterson.

After not pitching past Double-A coming into 2021, Megill was summoned from the minor leagues in June out of necessity as the Mets were beset by injuries to the pitching staff. Thrust into the fire, the 2018 pick out of Arizona responded with a stellar 3.21 ERA over his first 11 big league starts. As the Mets’ season spiraled downward in mid-August, however, so did Megill’s, with a 6.81 ERA over his final seven outings.

One of the voids Megill helped fill was that left by Peterson. After impressing in his rookie season (6-2, 3.44 ERA in 10 outings during 2020), the left-hander struggled to find his command in 2021, pitching to a 5.54 ERA over 15 starts before multiple lower body injuries ended his season.

Judging purely on each one’s situation heading into the winter, it would seem Megill has an upper hand on a rotation spot over Peterson. Realistically, though, neither is guaranteed to even make the club out of spring training, particularly if the Mets decide to bring in another veteran arm (more on that shortly). Both have potential, but the Mets must also weigh the benefits of building up their innings and experience at Triple-A versus having them continue learning on the job in the majors.

Bottom Line: For a team in win-now mode, the Mets should allow Megill and Peterson to develop properly with consistent innings at Triple-A Syracuse while seeking another veteran starter.

External Targets: Carlos Rodón, Johnny Cueto, Michael Pineda, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt

All the questions surrounding everyone beyond the Mets’ two aces paint a clear picture: they need to add at least one more starter. Since the lockout has paused all major league player transactions, there’s still quite a few names available via free agency and several others as likely trade candidates.

Should the Mets choose to shoot high amongst the remaining free agents, Carlos Rodón is the best left. A 2014 first-round pick, Rodón finally broke out in 2021, finishing fifth in the American League Cy Young race with 13 wins and a 2.37 ERA for the AL Central Champion Chicago White Sox. Despite his success, interested teams will likely need to weigh whether Rodón has truly turned a corner – he owned a career 4.14 ERA prior to last season and has a history of injuries that continued to plague him down the stretch last September.

Among veterans that will likely cost less in both years and dollars, Johnny Cueto (36 in February) and Michael Pineda (33 in January) offer the most intrigue. Cueto logged 114 2/3 innings for the 108-win San Francisco Giants last year, posting a 4.08 ERA that was good for league-average. While he isn’t the same pitcher he was years ago, Cueto offer the type of veteran leadership that could benefit the Mets in multiple ways, as he can eat up innings with a low walk rate and has postseason experience (including a 2015 championship we won’t get into here).

Pineda may be most remembered for a rocky tenure with the Yankees early in his career but has since gained his footing in Minnesota, with a 3.80 ERA over 52 starts (53 games) since the beginning of 2019. Per Baseball Savant, most of his advanced statistics from last season aren’t flattering on the surface since he doesn’t overpower with his fastball (91 MPH average), but he did rank in the top 4 percent in both chase rate and walk rate (just 21 walks in 109 1/3 innings last year). With the Mets having made improvements on defense, Pineda could be an interesting short-term fit.

If the Mets go the trade route, the most likely partner would be the Oakland Athletics. Seeking to shed salary, the A’s have a couple of prime starters to offer in Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt – Manaea, 29, posted a 3.91 ERA across 32 starts last season, while the 32-year-old Bassitt became a first-time All-Star with a career best 12 wins and 3.9 bWAR to go along with a 3.15 ERA. Acquiring either would likely necessitate some combination of low-cost, controllable major league talent (think J.D. Davis, Dom Smith, Jeff McNeil) and prospects.

With moves the Mets have already made, Steve Cohen has made it clear the luxury tax isn’t as much of a deterrent as some perceived it to be. At the same time, the Mets are already bumping against the current threshold, making someone like Rodón a less likely option considering the risk tied to signing him. Trading for one of the A’s top starters would certainly make sense, but the Mets shouldn’t be quick to deal from their pool of position players, especially if the Designated Hitter arrives in the National League next year (as most expect it will).

Bottom Line: The Mets should actively try to a swing a trade with Oakland for Manaea or Bassitt, but only if the price is right; otherwise, adding a veteran like Cueto or Pineda would be a fine Plan B.

Stashes beyond 2022: Joey Lucchesi, Thomas Szapucki, J.T. Ginn

Anyone hoping for Lucchesi and his slurve to return in 2022 will likely be disappointed. Optimistically, the lefty’s recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery puts him on track to return late 2022 at the very earliest. As we saw most recently with Noah Syndergaard, however, setbacks are common, and even the slightest delay would dash any chance of Lucchesi pitching in 2022.

Szapucki and Ginn popped up last summer as the Mets became desperate for bodies to take a turn in the rotation. This was more a product of the team’s situation at the time than an indication of each one’s readiness to contribute at the Major League level – Szapucki had logged only 145 minor league innings prior to last season, while Ginn was just getting his minor league career going. Szapucki pitched briefly for the Mets before his season ended due to injury, while Ginn’s strong 2021 debut between St. Lucie and Brooklyn now has him ranked fifth on MLB.com’s Mets top prospect list.

Bottom Line: The Mets must proceed as if Lucchesi will not pitch in 2022, while prospects like Szapucki and Ginn really need another full minor league season under their belts.

Taking everything into account, the Mets rotation is obviously much better than it was prior to Scherzer’s signing. If 2021 taught us anything, though, it’s that building quality depth is the key to surviving a full season. Look for the Mets to accomplish that by bringing in a couple more veteran arms before Opening Day.

These additional signings may not be splashy, but if the Mets hope to compete with the likes of the Braves and Dodgers atop the National League, they are critical and would put a bow on their offseason.