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Mets starting pitching trio: 1 to trust, 1 to move to the bullpen, 1 to demote
What does the future hold for the Mets trio of starting pitchers?
The New York Mets are testing different players to figure out who they can count on and in what role for 2024. One area that needs more clarity on their path to free agency is the starting pitching rotation.
Kodai Senga looks like the ace of the Mets' rotation for next year, and Jose Quintana has been efficient in all his outings, but from this point on there are many questions about who could take on a role in the rotation and who. They would make up the bullpen. In this sense, we are going to analyze three pitchers and where they fit best this season and next in the Mets pitching staff.
One Mets pitcher to trust: Joey Luchessi
Joey Lucchesi had been a forgotten soul on the Mets' roster this season. After missing the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery and a few AAA outings with knee tendonitis, Lucchesi made 14 appearances for the Syracuse Mets, posting a 3.69 ERA.
Lucchesi returned to pitching in the Mets' rotation a few days ago against the St. Louis Cardinals, after not pitching with the team since last May. The lefty managed to limit the Cardinals' offense to just four hits in 5.2 innings in which he struck out five.
A relevant aspect of Lucchesi's last appearance is that his curve generated his best numbers this season. Lucchesi curveball showed a max spin rate of 2364 generating eight swing strikes, and four called strikes for a CSW% of 39%.
Lucchesi's stuff isn't the most electric of the Mets' options, but his efficiency on breaking pitches tends to generate enough swing-and-miss and weak contact to put him in an advantageous position. Lucchesi deserves more exposure within the rotation over other options on the team, as he has proven to be a more reliable pitcher.
One Mets pitcher to the bullpen: David Peterson
David Peterson was an expected pitching prospect in the Mets' system. Since he arrived at MLB his performance has been inconsistent, and he has not been able to establish himself in MLB as a starter.
This 2023 has been a season comparable to his performance in 2021 when he posted his worst season with an ERA+ of just 73. This season Peterson has allowed the most hits and walked the most per nine innings of his career.
One of the main causes of Peterson's loss is because the opponents are connecting with him with greater strength, putting the highest hardhit% of his career. Additionally, the GB/FB ratio has deteriorated which, combined with the increase in his allowed hard-hit contact, has hurt him enormously.
However, Peterson's split stats show, albeit in a small sample, that he has become more effective as a reliever. In this role, Peterson could bring more to the Mets in MLB due to his ability to face lefties, pitch multiple innings, and become a long reliever as well.
The Mets could use Peterson as an experiment in this role, getting a pitcher who works as a bridge between the top starters and relievers. Peterson could find better stuff in fewer innings or pitches per game.
One Mets pitcher to demote: Tylor Megill
Tylor Megill's regression this season has been disappointing and worrying. The starting pitcher has one of the best stuff among the Mets' MLB-ready talent options.
After showing excellent results in 2021, when he started the season as the opening-day pitcher following deGrom's injury, Megill has struggled to repeat that incredible streak. After returning from his injury, he has been showing worse results the last two seasons, 2023 being the worst in his short career.
In 2023, Megill has been heavily handicapped by the long ball and has diminished his ability to strike out, raising questions about his command on the mound. The allowed SLG is above .460, and his average exit velocity sits above 90 mph, which is pretty bad.
However, even though his fastball has lost power over the past two seasons, in his last outing against the Pirates, his fastball topped 98 mph and generated nine swings and misses. The fact that Megill manages to push his fastball speed more and more early in games is intriguing.
The Mets must demote Tylor Megill to make him a short reliever, and work even more on his stuff and speed in fewer innings. With this move, the Mets can test Megill in spring training as a reliever, who with his improved speed, could be a late-inning option for the team.
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