The state of the Mets starting lineup

Unlike other components of the team, it is entirely possible the New York Mets already have their full group of starting position players for 2022 on the roster. Ironically, it also leaves them with perhaps some of their toughest decisions.

Lost in all the excitement around the signing of Max Scherzer, the Mets did most of their pre-lockout work on improving the offense. Outfielders Starling Marte and Mark Canha, and infielder Eduardo Escobar, were each signed to multiyear deals less than two weeks after Billy Eppler was named General Manager in late November.

All three figure to see significant playing time, but exactly how and where are still a bit unclear. The signings of Marte and Canha spell the likely end of Michael Conforto’s time in Queens, but uncertainty remains around the future of several Mets coming off down years – most notably Jeff McNeil, who has been the subject of trade rumors. Among other questions, the Mets must also account for Robison Cano’s return from a year-long suspension and the likely addition of the Designated Hitter to the National League next season.

Ultimately, the key question for the Mets lineup is not so much who they will have, but where each player fits best.

Let’s look at each piece the Mets have and how they can put the puzzle together. For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll assume the Designated Hitter is universally adopted for 2022, but if it isn’t, there’s always the intrigue of a Jacob deGrom plate appearance to look forward to.

Heart of the Order: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano

For the most part, the heart of the Mets lineup seems straightforward on the surface, but the one position of uncertainty carries a lot of weight in how successful this lineup may be.

Despite an underwhelming and tumultuous first season in Queens, Francisco Lindor should continue as the Mets’ third hitter in 2022. Much has been said about his struggles at the plate last year (.230/.322/.412 with a league average OPS+), but Lindor’s strong final month (.895 OPS in his last 30 games) coupled with a deeper lineup make him a prime bounce-back candidate.

Speaking of bounce-back seasons, Pete Alonso’s strong 2021 solidified his spot as the team’s cleanup hitter. After struggling to find consistency in 2020, the “Polar Bear” rebounded with 37 home runs (third in the National League), 94 runs batted in, and a 134 OPS+ last year, not to mention a successful defense of his Home Run Derby crown. What was most impressive, however, was Alonso’s ability to make more contact at the plate, highlighted by cutdowns in whiff rate (18% improvement in 2021, per Baseball Prospectus) and strikeouts (19.9% strikeout rate after sitting above 25% in his first two seasons).

For the fifth spot, Buck Showalter could go a few different routes. There is a case to be made for Jeff McNeil who, despite an alarming drop-off in production last season (.251 batting average after hitting .319 across his first three seasons), could lengthen the middle of the lineup if he plays closer to his career norms.

Mark Canha could also be an option here. The outfielder served primarily as Oakland’s leadoff hitter last season but was more often a five-hole hitter in the two seasons prior, during which he posted the best on-base percentages of his career (.396 and .387 in 2019 and 2020, respectively).

Then there is Robinson Cano, who is an enigma after missing all of 2021 due to a PED-related suspension. The eight-time All-Star hit .316 with 19 extra-base hits in 171 at-bats in 2020, but at age 39 after a year away from major league action, it’s obvious to wonder just how much the Mets can still expect from Cano. Unless they can somehow negotiate a buyout of the final two years of his contract (he is owed $24 million annually, with $3.75 million per year paid by the Seattle Mariners), the Mets will almost certainly play Cano somewhat regularly, at least at the start of the season.

While there is bound to be some experimenting, the guess here is that Cano will get a shot at batting behind Lindor and Alonso as the designated hitter. If Cano’s track record means anything at this point, he at least offers the potential for a high average hitter with power from the left side, which could balance the rest of the lineup nicely.

Rounding Out: Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, Jeff McNeil, James McCann

Buck Showalter will have several quality bats to choose from in rounding out his lineup card – and he will need to get creative in determining which order works the best.

The qualities that make Canha and McNeil possible fits higher in the lineup could work to the Mets’ advantage in a world without pitchers hitting. While both would slot in nicely in the sixth or seventh spot, the case could be made for one of them to hit ninth, effectively giving the Mets an extra leadoff hitter upon turning the lineup over. Hypothetically, the Mets could have Canha (or McNeil), Nimmo, and Marte as the three due up in an inning after the eighth hitter makes the final out, giving the Mets three high-average/on-base threats in succession.

Eduardo Escobar profiles as a switch-hitting power bat the Mets can toggle around the bottom of the order, depending on different matchups. The veteran earned his first All-Star nod in 2021 with 28 home runs and 90 runs batted in, spending most of the year with Arizona before being traded to Milwaukee and helping the Brewers win the National League Central division title.

James McCann will likely slot in eighth or ninth in the order in his second season as the primary catcher. It was a struggle at the plate last year for McCann, hitting just .232 with an OPS well below league average (.643). Similar to McNeil, however, he profiles as a potential bounce-back candidate who could dramatically lengthen the lineup if he plays closer to where he was with the Chicago White Sox in 2019-2020 (.276 average across 536 at-bats).

Inevitably, the Mets will have many different lineups throughout the coming season, whether it be dictated injuries, performance, or simply pitching matchups. Nevertheless, there is more depth and flexibility available now than what the team had going into the offseason. With more moves undoubtedly coming once the lockout ends, the Mets should be well positioned to consistently field a competitive starting nine come Opening Day.