NL Wild Card Standings: Mets schedule is the toughest remaining but there’s a catch

While scoreboard watching, it’s also imperative to look ahead at who teams are actually playing. The New York Mets have the toughest schedule left this season among those vying for a NL Wild Card berth. The teams they play have a combined .541 winning percentage. Only the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have it tougher.

How dire are those straits? Unless Mark Knopfler shows up to throw out the first pitch at a Mets game, not too bad.

Strength of schedule matters a little bit less in late September. It doesn’t assure any better (or worse) results for a couple of reasons. Because the Mets play the division leading Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers for a combined 10 games, they appear to have a greater challenge than the Diamondbacks who happen to have 10 combined against those same Brewers plus three against the San Diego Padres, too.

The Mets have the toughest remaining schedule for NL Wild Card contenders, but that’s a little quirky

Those final three games of the season when the Mets play the Brewers are far less likely to matter to Milwaukee than the conclusion between the Diamondbacks and Padres in the last weekend of the season. The Brewers will have the NL Central locked up by the time the Mets visit. The only thing they could possibly play for is seeding. The Padres, on the other hand, could need a win or two in order to guarantee themselves home field advantage in the Wild Card round.

Arizona does have three weaker opponents on the schedule versus the two the Mets will face. They play the Colorado Rockies for three, Texas Rangers for two, and San Francisco Giants for three. The Mets only get three each against the Washington Nationals and Toronto Blue Jays. Essentially, the only difference is the two against the Rangers.

Truly key to the Mets season is to win their series against the Atlanta Braves. They enter Monday, September 9, tied for the final Wild Card spot. How much more shifting will take place between now and when they play each other in the penultimate series of the season?

Atlanta has a perceived tougher schedule with a combined .507 winning percentage versus the .486 the Padres have to deal with. However, Atlanta’s tough opponents include the Los Angeles Dodgers for four, less fantastic-looking-of-late Kansas City Royals for three, and those three others against the Mets. The Padres combine to play 10 games against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners. It’s the fact that they play the Chicago White Sox for three that has their schedule looking easier. One number can drag an average down.

Opponents will make a difference in these final days. So will health. The Diamondbacks got back Ketel Marte and Christian Walker recently for their playoff push. Any of the four teams vying for the three spots have a chance.

Can some math prove the Mets schedule isn't so tough?

For one final calculation, let’s see how teams will finish if 1) they win each series against inferior opponents by the minimum number of games to do so 2) they lose each series against superior opponents by a minimum number of games to do 3) split any 4+ game series 4) split any 2 game series 5) tie goes to the home team. One more win than the Braves is the minimum they'll need.

New York Mets will go 9-10 
Arizona Diamondbacks will go 10-8
San Diego Padres will go 10-7
Atlanta Braves will go 10-9

One less win than the Braves (and I tried to find a formula to help the Mets) is the outcome here. It looks like they will need to, once again, outperform expectations. The difference for them could be something as simple as taking 2 of 3 in Atlanta.