Mets trade target to replace Edwin Diaz #4: Daniel Bard
Daniel Bard had an awesome season in Colorado last year. The righty pitched 60.1 innings in 57 appearances. He allowed 35 hits, 12 earned runs, 25 walks, and he struck out 69 batters. His ERA was 1.79, his FIP was 2.86, his WHIP was 0.99, and his ERA+ was a crazy 262.
It’s fair to expect some regression for a few reasons. First, his FIP was more than a run higher than his ERA last year. He’s primarily a ground ball pitcher, getting 51.7% of his batted balls on the ground last year, and he was helped by his defense quite a bit. The second reason is the obvious one, he’s still in Colorado. Look at his other two seasons there and you’ll see a 5.21 ERA in 2021 and a 3.65 ERA in 2020. The ball flies there and the field is huge. It’s inevitable. The other factor is that he’s 37, turning 38 in June.
I don’t think he’d be super expensive to acquire in a trade. As mentioned above, he’s going to regress statistically and he will likely be 38 by the time the Mets are willing to make a move. He is under contract for two more seasons, so he’ll be 40 by the end of that. It might cost a fringe-top-30 prospect to get him, but I wouldn’t pay more than that.