Ranking the top 5 trade targets for the Mets to consider to help replace Edwin Diaz

Mets trade target to replace Edwin Diaz #4: Daniel Bard

Daniel Bard had an awesome season in Colorado last year. The righty pitched 60.1 innings in 57 appearances. He allowed 35 hits, 12 earned runs, 25 walks, and he struck out 69 batters. His ERA was 1.79, his FIP was 2.86, his WHIP was 0.99, and his ERA+ was a crazy 262.

It’s fair to expect some regression for a few reasons. First, his FIP was more than a run higher than his ERA last year. He’s primarily a ground ball pitcher, getting 51.7% of his batted balls on the ground last year, and he was helped by his defense quite a bit. The second reason is the obvious one, he’s still in Colorado. Look at his other two seasons there and you’ll see a 5.21 ERA in 2021 and a 3.65 ERA in 2020. The ball flies there and the field is huge. It’s inevitable. The other factor is that he’s 37, turning 38 in June.

I don’t think he’d be super expensive to acquire in a trade. As mentioned above, he’s going to regress statistically and he will likely be 38 by the time the Mets are willing to make a move. He is under contract for two more seasons, so he’ll be 40 by the end of that. It might cost a fringe-top-30 prospect to get him, but I wouldn’t pay more than that.

Mets trade target to replace Edwin Diaz #3: Scott Barlow

Kansas City Royals closer Scott Barlow has been one of the more underrated relief pitchers in MLB for a few seasons. Last year, he pitched 74.1 innings in 69 appearances. He allowed 52 hits, 18 earned runs, 22 walks, and he struck out 77 batters. His ERA was 2.18, his FIP was 3.62, his WHIP was 1.00, and his ERA+ was 188. 

His FIP was higher last year because his K/9 was down, but so were his BB/9 and his H9. He went from 11 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 7.4 H/9 in 2021 to 9.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 6.3 H/9 in 2022. He was equally effective in both seasons, considering He had a 188 ERA+ in 74.1 innings in both.

The Royals have some exciting young players coming up, but they aren’t ready to contend yet. Barlow turned 30 over the offseason and he’s a free agent in two years. It seems like a lot of trades are happening around the sport with 1.5 years of control left, which is exactly where Barlow will be at the trade deadline. I’d expect a few teams to be in on him. He could be someone the team should inquire about right now to let the Royals know they're ready to do the deal whenever they are.

Mets trade target to replace Edwin Diaz #2: Alexis Diaz

The Mets were in on Edwin’s hermano Alexis last season, so why not revisit that this year? The younger Diaz tossed 63.2 innings in 59 appearances last year. He allowed 28 hits, 13 earned runs, 33 walks, and struck out 83 batters. His ERA was 1.84, his FIP was 3.32, his WHIP was 0.96, and his ERA+ was 244. 

The one knock on Alexis is the walks. His BB/9 was 4.7, which is a concerning number for a reliever. However, he balances that out by not allowing any hits or homers, with his H/9 being 4.0 and his HR.9 being 0.7.

This trade would obviously be bigger than numbers and baseball. We all saw how distraught Alexis was as Edwin was being wheeled off the field the other night. Having Alexis be around during Edwin’s recovery process would be an incredible thing for both of them, and their family. 

Not only that, but Alexis is under team control for five more seasons, which is exactly the length of Edwin’s contract (minus the club option). They’d get to play together for at least four seasons after Edwin’s recovery. That would come at a cost in a trade, but the Reds are one of the worst run organizations in sports, so maybe the Mets can take advantage of that.

Mets trade target to replace Edwin Diaz #1: David Bednar

David Bednar has been involved in trade discussions over the last two seasons, and this could be the year he gets dealt. Last year, he tossed 51.2 innings in 45 appearances. He allowed 42 hits, 15 earned runs, 16 walks, and he struck out 69 batters. His ERA was 2.61, his FIP was 2.43, his WHIP was 1.12, and his ERA+ was 159.

His 2021 was even better. He pitched 60.2 innings and allowed 40 hits, 15 earned runs, 19 walks, and struck out 69 batters. His ERa was 2.23, his FIP was 2.69, his WHIP was 0.97, and his ERA+ was 192.

Consistency is a big thing for elite relievers, and he’s got that. His BB/9 was 2.8 and his HR/9 was 0.7 in each of the last two seasons. His K/9’s were 11.4 and 12, respectively, which is close. His FIPs both years were in the mid-twos, which you love to see.

Bednar has four years of control left, so he will be expensive as well. He’s still 28, so he’s in his prime. Obviously that control at his age and level of production is worth the cost. Similar to the Giants and Doval, would they be interested in Vientos or Mauricio? Could be.