4 ways Billy Eppler can screw up the trade deadline in the last 36 hours
There is still time left for Billy Eppler to potentially screw up what has been a good deadline so far.
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The New York Mets have had as eventful of a trade deadline as any team in the majors. David Robertson was first to go, and the big shocker was the Max Scherzer trade.
For those (including myself) who were expecting only players on one-year deals to go, you were horribly mistaken. It feels like virtually everyone who isn't on a long term deal or one of the best catchers in baseball at 21 years old can be had for the right price.
With so much up in the air, so much can go wrong. It feels like Mets rumors are circulating every hour. Billy Eppler has done well in his first two trades of this trade deadline, but there're many ways he can screw this all up.
1) Billy Eppler can screw up the NY Mets trade deadline by trading Justin Verlander for anything less than a monster haul
Scherzer is gone, and it feels very possible that Justin Verlander goes too. He's committed to the Mets potentially through the 2025 season as of now, but for the first time today, expressed publicly that he'd be willing to waive his no-trade clause if the Mets do decide to trade him.
"I'm committed to try and win a championship here, but if the organization decides that that's not the direction that's best fit for next year, I'd be open to it"
— SNY (@SNYtv) July 30, 2023
- Justin Verlander on if he would waive his no-trade clause pic.twitter.com/X35MzmFOXb
To me, trading Verlander would be pretty much conceding not only 2023 which they've already conceded, but 2024 as well. The way the Mets are constructed, and with the upcoming free agency class, it's hard to see the Mets building up a rotation that's ready to compete next season if Verlander isn't apart of it.
If the Mets want to continue to tear down the current roster and focus on 2025 and beyond, that's fine with me. Verlander is not untoucable in my mind, but he is a guy who should bring back a monster haul and nothing less.
Verlander entered Sunday's start against the Nationals with a 1.46 ERA in his last six starts. He then proceeded to deliver five innings of one-run ball on Sunday afternoon to help the Mets win that series. After a slow start, it's abundantly clear that Verlander is back in Cy Young form and can help any team he'd go to win the World Series in 2023.
The contract is less than ideal, but the Mets have shown a willingness to eat money. They did it in the Scherzer deal, there's no doubt in my mind Steve Cohen would eat money to maximize the return in a Verlander deal.
Considering the fact that he's under team control at least through 2024 and if his option vests, through 2025, the price tag should be enormous. He's better than Scherzer by a wide margin and is more controllable. Scherzer netted a top-50 prospect in Luisangel Acuña, maybe Verlander can net two top-50 prospects or a top-20 prospect.
My point here is just because you've conceded 2023 do not sell low on Verlander. You can trade him, but only do it if you're overwhelmed. Just like you did with Scherzer.
2) Billy Eppler can screw up the NY Mets trade deadline by failing to trade Tommy Pham
This is an obvious one, but since it hasn't happened yet, it must be reiterated. The biggest must-trade now that Robertson is gone, is Tommy Pham.
The Mets signed Pham to a one-year deal to act primarily as a right-handed DH option and as a fourth outfielder. He got off to a slow start in a part-time role, but since playing every day he's taken off.
He's slashing .268/.348/.472 on the season with 10 home runs and 32 RBI. He's tacked on 15 doubles and 11 stolen bases. In a season full of frustration and disappointment, Pham has been one of only a few Mets to exceed expectations.
Pham has an .871 OPS against southpaws this season and has played a solid left field. With there being very few confirmed sellers, he's easily one of the best bats available.
A guy like Mark Canha who is also on a one-year deal should be traded as well, but he's not having the year Pham is having. Pham can get the Mets a decent piece or two even if his injury diminishes his value a bit. Canha should go, Pham must go.
3) Billy Eppler can screw up the NY Mets trade deadline by failing to open up spots for both Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio to play every day
It's time. You've thrown in the towel. You've given up on 2023. Now is when you play the kids for real.
This should've happened by now, but the Mets have held off due to them attempting to make a run at a Wild Card spot. Now that that's out of the window, it's time to play both Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio every day at the big league level just to even see what you have in them.
Vientos had a rough first stint with the Mets thanks somewhat to the Mets refusing to play him very much, but he's looked much better since being recalled shortly after the all-star break. Vientos has slashed .333/.391/.571 in his 21 at-bats since returning, and he just hit his first home run since coming back in his last at-bat of Saturday's game (before inevitably sitting the following afternoon).
I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Mark Vientos. His AAA numbers in each of the past two seasons have been off the charts. His MLB plate appearances haven't looked great, but they've also been few and far in between. The Mets have yet to give this kid weeks of starts in a row.
I don't believe Vientos is anything more than a DH long term, but the Mets can easily create an opening at DH by moving Daniel Vogelbach. He's played much better of late so maybe he can be traded, but even if he isn't traded the Mets can simply DFA him. It's hard to envision him being handed the keys to be the primary DH in 2024, so you might as well see if Vientos can take the reigns.
Ronny Mauricio is a player the Mets have been hesitant to call up. Plate discipline has been an issue, and his defense outside of his primary position of shortstop is suspect at best. He's played both left field and second base and hasn't looked great in either spot.
It might be frustrating to watch, but I think it's time to see what he can do. His offensive numbers in AAA this season have been quite good, and since the Mets aren't trying to win now, they can deal with mistakes. Let's see how he plays. If he's not ready, don't start him on the MLB team in 2024, it's rather simple.
The Mets focus in the next couple of months should be on trying to find players who fit into their plans in 2024 and beyond. There's no need to use players like Danny Mendick, D.J. Stewart and Daniel Vogelbach outside of the occasional start. Let the kids play now that the team is out of it.
4) Billy Eppler can screw up the NY Mets trade deadline by keeping Carlos Carrasco
I like Carlos Carrasco a lot. I think he had a really solid year in 2022 and played a key role in helping the Mets win 101 games. This season has been a completely different story.
Carrasco has an ERA of 6.40 in 15 starts and 70.1 innings this season. He's had some good moments like his eight scoreless innings in Arizona, but the bad has definitely overshadowed the good.
His walk rate has spiked from 6.4% last season to 9.9% this season. His strikeout rate has plummeted from 23.6% last season to 16.1% this season. His home run rate has jumped from 2.6% last season to 4.0% this season. The 36-year-old just doesn't appear to be a usable pitcher anymore.
In Carrasco's last two starts he's allowed 13 runs (11 earned) on 18 hits, going 2.1 innings in both games. They honestly felt worse than the numbers show, which is hard to fathom.
With him being on the final year of his deal, the Mets should look to move on. Maybe if the Mets eat the money on his deal a team would take him in a trade just based on his solid track record, but if not, they should just DFA him. Let someone like David Peterson or Tylor Megill start in his place. They could even bring up a young arm like Mike Vasil to see what he can do.
Carrasco will almost certainly not be back in 2024, so you might as well see if you can find someone who can help you next season. If nobody else sticks out, at least you'll know who you can't rely on.
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