Predicting what the Mets roster would look like if the season started tomorrow
The New York Mets have had an outstanding offseason. They signed Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, and Starling Marte to help improve a lineup that was towards the bottom in all of baseball in runs per game. They also signed Max Scherzer to improve a rotation that fell apart to end the season.
There is still work to be done with this roster. I believe the Mets could use another starting pitcher to round out the rotation. I believe the Mets could use a couple of relievers, especially another lefty, to complete the bullpen. I believe the Mets could even use another bat to help bolster this lineup even more.
If the season started tomorrow, what would the Mets 26-man roster look like?
Starting rotation
As constructed, the top four of the rotation seems set. Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in the game, and the best player on this team. He's the ace of this staff, no questions asked.
Max Scherzer is arguably the second-best pitcher in the game. He's undoubtedly top five. He slots in beautifully behind deGrom forming one of the more formidable tops of a rotation we've ever seen.
I think arguments can be made as to who the number three starter is, whether its Carlos Carrasco or Taijuan Walker. I lean Carrasco because I believe when fully healthy he's proven to be a really reliable rotation arm and Walker's second half showed me that he can be, but isn't there yet.
1) Jacob deGrom
2) Max Scherzer
3) Carlos Carrasco
4) Taijuan Walker
5) Tylor Megill
The fifth starter job is up for grabs. Ideally, the Mets sign or trade for another arm just for added depth and to make this rotation that much better.
I believe that as constructed, the fifth spot is up for grabs between Tylor Megill and David Peterson. I tend to lean Megill's way. Through his first 11 starts as a Met after making only three starts in AAA, he went 1-2 with a 3.21 ERA. He struck out 60 batters in 56 innings pitched. He stumbled down the stretch, but I believe that his potential is much higher than Peterson's.
Peterson was handed a rotation spot this past season and struggled. He posted a 5.44 ERA in 15 starts and looked like a different pitcher. In 2020 he seemed to get out of jams that he couldn't get out of last season. His walks are a big problem (3.9 BB/9) and his home runs saw a large spike as well (1.5 HR/9). Peterson would be more useful in AAA or in the bullpen but is a solid depth option if needed in the rotation.
Bullpen
In my opinion, the bullpen was a strength in 2021. Especially in the second half, the Mets had no starter outside of Marcus Stroman that they could rely upon to give them innings. That means the bullpen was usually tasked with getting between 10-15 outs per game at least.
Unfortunately, the most consistent piece of the bullpen from last season in Aaron Loup signed with the Angels. That leaves a big hole in the bullpen that the Mets have yet to replace. When the lockout resumes I hope they do address the bullpen but it still has some very good pieces in it as is. Most of the eight-man bullpen has been figured out but the back half of it is very up in the air.
6) Edwin Diaz
7) Seth Lugo
8) Trevor May
9) Miguel Castro
10) Drew Smith
11) Trevor Williams
12) David Peterson
13) Sean Reid-Foley
I believe that Diaz, Lugo, May, Castro, and Smith are locks no matter what. Diaz is the undisputed closer, and rightfully so. Lugo and May will be critical late game arms. Castro and Smith both looked really impressive last season and will be in the mix in some way. The rest of the bullpen I believe is a toss-up.
The Mets have eight pitchers who are not listed as a starter or reliever on the 40-man roster. Out of those eight, the only ones who I feel would have any sort of chance at a roster spot are Yennsy Diaz, Joey Lucchesi, Jake Reed, and Jordan Yamamoto.
Lucchesi is injured so he's not going to be on the roster. The other three pitchers had their moments, but I don't think are better than the three I believe get those bullpen spots.
Trevor Williams was acquired in the Javier Baez trade. As a Met, he posted a 3.06 ERA in 10 appearances (three starts). He kept the Mets in games and kept the ball in the ballpark (0.3 HR/9). The Mets also decided to tender him, so he will be making around $3.75 million dollars according to spotrac. Hard to keep a guy who's making almost $4 million dollars in the Minor Leagues.
Sean Reid-Foley's season was ruined by injuries and two bad outings. In his other 11 outings, he allowed just three runs in 18.2 innings pitched. He struck out 11.3/9 overall. He's a guy the Mets were able to rely upon for the beginning of the season to give them multiple innings whenever they needed it. I think that'll be good for their bullpen.
David Peterson I think gets the last bullpen spot for a couple of reasons. First, he's a lefty. The only other left-handers on the 40-man roster are Lucchesi and Thomas Szapucki. Lucchesi is hurt and Szapucki allowed six runs in 3.2 innings in his only big-league appearance. In a division with many talented left-handed hitters, the Mets might be able to rely on Peterson to give length and also potentially get some of those hitters out. He's also just a flat-out more talented pitcher than those who won't make the team.
Position Players
I believe the starting lineup is pretty set in stone. The Mets signed three players to fill in three spots which was needed since they were one of the worst offensive teams in baseball last season.
Whether it'll be a starting eight or nine depends on whether there will be a DH but for the sake of this article let's assume there is going to be a DH as that is the expected outcome.
14) Brandon Nimmo
15) Starling Marte
16) Francisco Lindor
17) Pete Alonso
18) Mark Canha
19) Jeff McNeil
20) Eduardo Escobar
21) Robinson Cano
22) James McCann
The obvious piece in this lineup that will be scrutinized is the presence of Robinson Cano. After missing the entire 2021 season as a result of his second PED suspension, Cano is back and unfortunately will be a part of this team. I don't expect the Mets to sit him unless they absolutely have to thanks to the money he is making. I expect the 39-year-old to struggle without the aid of PED's but for now, I expect him to serve as the DH on Opening Day.
As constructed, the Mets bench would be a major strength. Arguments can be made for three of the four players to have some sort of role in the starting lineup.
23) Dominic Smith
24) J.D. Davis
25) Luis Guillorme
26) Tomas Nido
Smith and Davis are too good to be bench players and I hope they move them for assets who can help the team. When healthy they have proven to be really good offensively at the very least and with every team likely getting the DH, they could be valuable. Right now they will start some games at first base and third base respectively and take some at-bats away at the DH spot from Robinson Cano if he struggles.
Luis Guillorme is the perfect utility infielder. He makes contact and is an unbelievable defensive player. He can back up three of the four infield spots very well.
Tomas Nido is a guy who I expect to get a lot of playing time if McCann isn't hitting. Nido isn't much of an offensive threat either but he's elite behind the plate defensively.
Things always change. I expect the Mets to make moves after the lockout ends and injuries always happen but if the season started tomorrow I would hope the roster would look like this: