How NY Mets rookie managers have fared in year 1

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The New York Mets have hired a multitude of rookie managers throughout their history. For the most successful organizations, there has been a culture built of stability throughout their organization. Joe Girardi managed the Yankees for a decade. Terry Francona managed in Cleveland for 11 years. Even the last place Nationals have had Dave Martinez since 2018.

The Mets changed managers like we change socks on a daily basis. Since Terry Collins stepped down in 2017, the Mets have had 5 different managers (6 if you include Carlos Beltran). Of these 5, 3 of them have been rookies in Callaway, Rojas, and now Mendoza. This pattern in recent Mets history shows how hard it is to find a rookie manager who spends the next decade with one organization. Much of the definitive signs of hit-or-miss comes in year 1 when we can evaluate for ourselves how much the manager is influencing the team. Throughout our entire 62-year history, is this pattern of ineptitude the same or different in year 1?

1. Wes Westrum, 1966

Wes Westrum had an interesting path to becoming the Mets manager in 1965. He was originally hired as the first base coach in 1964, and then was moved to pitching coach in 1965 after Warren Spahn was released. Just 11 days following his role change, Hall of Fame manager Casey Stengel was placed on medical leave after fracturing his hip getting out of his car. Westrum was named interim manager following the incident and was moved to full-time manager in 1966.

The Mets of the 1960's were considered the "lovable losers" of Major League Baseball. This phrase was no different under Westrum in his first full season at the helm as the Mets went 66-95, finishing last in the N.L. East. Though Westrum's managerial tenure would end after another losing season in 1967, he did help develop the young team that eventually won a title in 1969. Based on expectation, Westrum's tenure cannot be viewed as a failure. He inherited a young team with the likes of Nolan Ryan and Tom Seaver that were just getting their feet wet as future hall of fame inductees.

2. Joe Frazier, 1976

Joe Frazier had a much more common path to becoming Mets manager. He managed the team's minor league affiliate Tidewater Tides to the International League Championship in 1975 and was promoted to the big-league ballclub for the 1976 season. The Mets were coming off an underwhelming 1975 where the team went 82-80 and fired Yogi Berra midway through the season.

Frazier's hire sparked a positive plug for the Mets in 1976 as the team went 86-76, finishing 3rd in the N.L. East. The pitching staff did perform very well under Frazier as the legendary staff including Seaver, Koosman, and Matlack posted a 2.95 ERA. Expectation-wise however, Frazier's rookie season was also underwhelming. This would be the final full season for Seaver, meaning 1976 was the final push for the core that brought home a pennant in 1973. Though Frazier did pull off a few more wins than Berra did in 1975, the Mets still underperformed given the great pitching staff in 1976.

3. Joe Torre, 1978

It is hard to believe Joe Torre's ascent to an all-time great baseball manager started with the Mets in 1977. He took the mantle after Frazier was released halfway through the season, one in which the Mets began a full teardown under General Manager Joe McDonald. After Torre took over as manager, Seaver was traded to Cincinnati in what is referred to now as the "Midnight Massacre", in reference to President Nixon's firing of Watergate Prosecutor Archibald Cox in 1973.

Torre's first full season as manager in 1978 was the beginning of a black hole in Mets baseball. They were a rebuilding franchise who in recent years just traded Ryan and Seaver. Other star players like Harrelson and Matlack had left the organization. Koosman and Kranepool were now older with the only younger players of note being Lee Mazzilli and Pat Zachry. With very low expectations, the Mets finished 66-96 in year one under Torre. It is safe to say Torre did not inherit the 1996 Yankees from Joe Frazier in 1978; he inherited a franchise in malaise searching for it's new identity.

4. Davey Johnson, 1984

The Mets were in the worst stretch of franchise history entering 1984. The team had 7 straight losing seasons with young superstars just on the horizon of making their major league debuts. General Manager Frank Cashen was ready to accelerate the team's growth by acquiring Keith Hernandez at the deadline in 1983. To help develop the young talent such Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry, Cashen promoted Davey Johnson from AAA Tidewater to Mets manager in 1984.

Johnson had the most successful rookie managing season in franchise history. The team finished 92-70, second to only the St. Louis Cardinals in the N.L. East. Doc and Darryl were as advertised- absolute stud young superstars. Wally Backman Ron Darling, and Mookie Wilson all jumped onto the scene with quality seasons, and Keith provided his gritty leadership. It was clear in 1984 the Mets were not a blip in the road for one season; a potential dynasty was brewing in Queens, and Johnson was the new leader of the ship.

5. Bud Harrelson, 1991

There have been very few instances in Mets history where a former player had come back to manage. The 1990 Mets was the last go around for the core of players that won a championship in 1986. The expectation was to win the division for the first time since 1988. After an underwhelming 20-22 start to the 1990 season, Cashen made the move to release Johnson and promote Harrelson from third base coach to manager. Though the team missed the playoffs, they did finish with a 91-71 record, 71-49 under Harrelson.

Harrelson received an unfair shake in his first full season as Mets manager in 1991. The team had just lost Strawberry in free agency to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Cashen brought in Vince Coleman to replace Strawberry, and let's just say 'disappointing' in an understatement for his performance. Gooden was no longer his dominant self, and Darling was dealt at the trade deadline. Harrelson would not make it through his first full rookie season and was fired with 7 games to go in the season. In all, the Mets record was 74-80 under Harrelson, 77-84 overall.

6. Willie Randolph, 2005

After a long stretch of veteran managers following the firing of Bud Harrelson in 1991, new G.M. Omar Minaya hired Yankee-great Willie Randolph to lead the 2005 N.Y. Mets. The team was still transitioning from their early 2000's success, with Mike Piazza entering the latter years of his career. The Mets had promoted their top prospects Jose Reyes and David Wright in the prior season and signed Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez prior to 2005.

With the young talent and new free agent signings, the Mets were expected to be much better than they were under Art Howe in 2003 and 2004. Randolph did face much adversity with Beltran underperforming and an awful bullpen aside from Aaron Heilman. Through these roster troubles, Randolph did manage the Mets to an 83-79 record and had great performances from Reyes and Wright. While the Mets missed the playoffs, Randolph did help lay the blueprint for what was to come in 2006.

7. Mickey Callaway, 2018

Perhaps the most surprising managerial hire in recent memory, the Mets settled on Mickey Callaway following the resignation of Terry Collins in 2017. The Mets were coming off, in my opinion, their most disappointing season since 1987. The pitching staff was in shambles with Jacob deGrom being the only healthy pitcher out of 'the five aces'. The thought process amongst Sandy Alderson and ownership was to hire a great pitching mind from Cleveland and hope he can help turn the starting rotation around.

Though the expectation was lower in 2018 than it was in 2017, the Mets were still expected to contend for a wild-card spot. The team signed 4 multi-year contracts including Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier. It's safe to say 2018 was a disappointment as the Mets went 77-85 including many managerial errors from Callway such as submitting the wrong lineup card and hinting that the players felt "too much pressure". However, Callaway did do what he was asked to do which was turn the rotation around. deGrom won the Cy Young Award, Zack Wheeler had a great second half, and Matz finished with a career high of 154 innings pitched.

8. Luis Rojas, 2020

We thought Westrum's path to becoming a major league manager was odd. Try getting promoted from Quality Controls Coach because the man expected to lead the team, Beltran, was fired weeks after being hired because of his involvement in the 2017 Houston Astros cheating scandal. Then, have your major league debut put on hold due to a worldwide pandemic just weeks before opening day. Then, have the culture of baseball completely change with 7-inning doubleheaders, limited face-to-face contact, speaking to the press via zoom, and the universal D.H. for a 60-game season. All of this and you haven't managed a game yet. Yes, this all happened to Luis Rojas in 2020.

The expectation going into the 2020 pandemic-shortened season was to be one of the 16 playoff teams under the new rule changes. Having a 60-game season basically meant the Mets were immediately inserted into a playoff chase with the other 4 teams in the N.L. East. However, nothing would go right for Rojas and much of it was out of his control. Cespedes and Stroman would opt-out of their contracts for the season. The Mets had a starting rotation and bullpen in shambles behind deGrom and Diaz. The team would finish 26-34 in what was the most difficult season to evaluate for a rookie Mets manager.

The common theme amongst all these rookie managers is that the Mets have not made the playoffs in year one of their term. Other than 1984 under Johnson, the Mets have either been mediocre or very bad in these scenarios. My prediction is Mendoza will be closer to Randolph's rookie season- a solid record around .500 but the team misses the playoffs. With expectations being lowered in 2024, it gives Mendoza a year to get settled and build from his new experience.

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How New York Mets rookie managers have fared in year 1