2 reasons the Mets will finish above .500, 2 reasons they will finish below

After their series against the St. Louis Cardinals, the New York Mets record is now even at .500. Sitting at 18-18 in a deadlock tie with the Washington Nationals for third-place in the National League East isn’t ideal and yet what matters more than anything else is where the Mets are in the Wild Card race.

You might be surprised to discover that a .500 record is all it takes to have the third Wild Card spot right now. The San Diego Padres at 20-20 are technically ahead of the Mets and of course they’re sharing the spot along with the Nationals with a duplicate record. The National League is still a top-heavy one with the Mets right there in the middle.

The mission isn’t to just finish above .500. Their aim is for far more. There is a case for them to end the year over the even mark. There is just as much of one to believe they’ll be under. Which do you believe? Let’s look at cases for both scenarios.

The Mets will finish above .500 because of their pitching talent and depth

The Mets pitching this season has been good even with some deception. The staff’s ERA would be even more impressive if not for Adrian Houser and a couple of relievers who’ve come and gone and come back again.

Pitching has been a source of strength. The limited number of innings from the starters has been overcome by the success of the relievers. With a couple of longer outings from the starters of late, they can avoid the catastrophic problem of burning out the bullpen arms too quickly in the season. Three more outs more regularly is all we’re asking for boys.

The talent is there. Equally as important is the depth. Beyond the current starter five, the Mets have a slew of other arms capable of getting big league outs. We have yet to see Kodai Senga. Tylor Megill is on his way back and let’s not ignore how hyped he was coming into this year. What about David Peterson? He’s no complete pushover. Neither is Joey Lucchesi.

There shouldn’t be a point this season when the Mets have to exhaustively put a starter on the mound who isn’t getting the job done. All of the optional players should head immediately back to the minors if they are struggling. As they did with Houser already, the veterans should have a quick hook.

Failing relievers will be tougher to manage, but already we’ve seen them strike gold with Reed Garrett. Jorge Lopez has been pretty awesome, too.

The Mets pitching staff was the reason why many doubters pointed at this team as one destined to finish below .500. Luis Severino has been superb. Sean Manaea is better than usual. And a whole cast of characters slotting in behind them should keep the Mets over .500 by the time the year is through.

The Mets won’t finish above .500 because the injury bug will bite them

The Mets have been relatively healthy to begin the year. They’ve had to place a couple of guys on the IL. J.D. Martinez experienced a setback during his unusual minor league assignment. Surely, someone else is already playing through some pain.

It’s usually by around this point in the season when players’ bodies begin to ache a little worse. The timing of those injuries tend to be devastating. The last thing this Mets team needs is to lose one of those top-talent guys.

Again with the pitching staff. One could argue the Mets can more afford to lose an offensive player merely because many of those guys have struggled. They’re now having to rotate through a couple of the “lesser” players on a more regular basis just to get everyone playing time. With pitching, it’s different. They’ve already dipped into the depth. We can appreciate the players they have available in the backseat while hoping none of them ever have to grab the wheel.

Most concerning are the number of players the Mets brought in this offseason with a track record of getting hurt. Luis Severino has struggled to stay on the field for years. Harrison Bader, who has played remarkably well for the team, is another one of those constantly hurt guys to wonder about. Starling Marte has played like he’s healthy but his age and two straight years of missing time should have us wondering if it’s only a matter of time.

Something the Mets don’t have a lot of is positional depth. There are a couple of positions where they’d be fine. However, none of the prospects are knocking loudly on the door and many of the veterans they added in the offseason on minor league deals are great solutions. An injury to a player like Francisco Alvarez can completely deplete the offensive production from a position. We don’t need more Joey Wendle in the starting lineup.

The Mets will not finish above .500 they’ll sell at the trade deadline

The line of demarcation comes at the MLB trade deadline. Play well enough beforehand and maybe you’ll be able to play even better after. Show your weaknesses too early and the front office will have enough reasons to sell rather than buy.

The way the Mets set themselves up for 2024 was much closer to seller’s mode. Short term deals added to the books plus no long term extensions put them in the perfect position to be one of the league’s biggest sellers. The only players off-limits are the ones with contracts no one would take.

Where the Mets are in the standings when the trade deadline pops up will have the most to say about their ultimate fate. As positive as many are about the future of the ball club, they aren’t going to be a team that is necessarily better with addition by subtraction. The farm system is promising but there aren’t a bunch of white knights about to ride up midseason to save them. This is a process intended to take longer than one year. It’s about the major league players with maybe a small number of rookies to make a cameo.

A reason the Mets are far more likely to sell at the trade deadline than buy is because the hesitance in the past to add big names mid-year. They could conceivably buy lightly if there’s no question they’re capable of contending. However, to trade away any prospects of note for players who won’t make a big enough difference is wasteful. The best we can probably hope for is a repeat of the 2022 trade deadline when the Mets held too tightly to their prospects and brought in several guys we’d all like to erase from our memories.

Where will David Stearns draw the line this year? Four games against the Atlanta Braves leading into the trade deadline could make or break the direction they ultimately go. Last year’s club was five games under .500 when they traded David Robertson to officially wave the white flag. They’d fall even further below the .500 mark by the end of the season.