2 reasons the Mets will finish above .500, 2 reasons they will finish below

After their series against the St. Louis Cardinals, the New York Mets record is now even at .500. Sitting at 18-18 in a deadlock tie with the Washington Nationals for third-place in the National League East isn’t ideal and yet what matters more than anything else is where the Mets are in the Wild Card race.

You might be surprised to discover that a .500 record is all it takes to have the third Wild Card spot right now. The San Diego Padres at 20-20 are technically ahead of the Mets and of course they’re sharing the spot along with the Nationals with a duplicate record. The National League is still a top-heavy one with the Mets right there in the middle.

The mission isn’t to just finish above .500. Their aim is for far more. There is a case for them to end the year over the even mark. There is just as much of one to believe they’ll be under. Which do you believe? Let’s look at cases for both scenarios.

The Mets will finish above .500 because of their pitching talent and depth

The Mets pitching this season has been good even with some deception. The staff’s ERA would be even more impressive if not for Adrian Houser and a couple of relievers who’ve come and gone and come back again.

Pitching has been a source of strength. The limited number of innings from the starters has been overcome by the success of the relievers. With a couple of longer outings from the starters of late, they can avoid the catastrophic problem of burning out the bullpen arms too quickly in the season. Three more outs more regularly is all we’re asking for boys.

The talent is there. Equally as important is the depth. Beyond the current starter five, the Mets have a slew of other arms capable of getting big league outs. We have yet to see Kodai Senga. Tylor Megill is on his way back and let’s not ignore how hyped he was coming into this year. What about David Peterson? He’s no complete pushover. Neither is Joey Lucchesi.

There shouldn’t be a point this season when the Mets have to exhaustively put a starter on the mound who isn’t getting the job done. All of the optional players should head immediately back to the minors if they are struggling. As they did with Houser already, the veterans should have a quick hook.

Failing relievers will be tougher to manage, but already we’ve seen them strike gold with Reed Garrett. Jorge Lopez has been pretty awesome, too.

The Mets pitching staff was the reason why many doubters pointed at this team as one destined to finish below .500. Luis Severino has been superb. Sean Manaea is better than usual. And a whole cast of characters slotting in behind them should keep the Mets over .500 by the time the year is through.

The Mets will finish above .500 because many of their best hitters haven’t played well yet

This is a bit of a “cope” yet it needs to be stated. With as bad as so many of the top hitters on this team have performed, we have to believe they’ll be better at some point and the result will have the Mets playing more competitive baseball. Just as Francisco Lindor seemed to crawl out of his slump, Pete Alonso replaced him in the doghouse.

The team hasn’t been a barrel of missed opportunities. They’ve actually been closer to average in terms of offensive production. Their biggest problem is the length at which guys like Lindor and Alonso go completely cold.

To look at some of the numbers posted by Lindor, Alonso, and Jeff McNeil and for them to be as alive as they are is impressive. All three have failed this year to play to the back of their baseball cards. Their shortcomings should’ve buried the Mets completely.

Fortunately, the number of games where all three were really bad has been few. Lindor started badly while Alonso raked. McNeil has been a frustrating player but he is spraying his hits a little more evenly than that pairing.

This wasn’t the offensive attack we expected out of the Mets. Guys like DJ Stewart are finding their way into the middle of the lineup. How are Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor going to lead the club in batting average?

A long MLB season has a way of averaging out. Once Lindor, Alonso, and maybe even McNeil get their acts together, the Mets can push themselves above .500 and hopefully for good.

The Mets will not finish above .500 they’ll sell at the trade deadline

The line of demarcation comes at the MLB trade deadline. Play well enough beforehand and maybe you’ll be able to play even better after. Show your weaknesses too early and the front office will have enough reasons to sell rather than buy.

The way the Mets set themselves up for 2024 was much closer to seller’s mode. Short term deals added to the books plus no long term extensions put them in the perfect position to be one of the league’s biggest sellers. The only players off-limits are the ones with contracts no one would take.

Where the Mets are in the standings when the trade deadline pops up will have the most to say about their ultimate fate. As positive as many are about the future of the ball club, they aren’t going to be a team that is necessarily better with addition by subtraction. The farm system is promising but there aren’t a bunch of white knights about to ride up midseason to save them. This is a process intended to take longer than one year. It’s about the major league players with maybe a small number of rookies to make a cameo.

A reason the Mets are far more likely to sell at the trade deadline than buy is because the hesitance in the past to add big names mid-year. They could conceivably buy lightly if there’s no question they’re capable of contending. However, to trade away any prospects of note for players who won’t make a big enough difference is wasteful. The best we can probably hope for is a repeat of the 2022 trade deadline when the Mets held too tightly to their prospects and brought in several guys we’d all like to erase from our memories.

Where will David Stearns draw the line this year? Four games against the Atlanta Braves leading into the trade deadline could make or break the direction they ultimately go. Last year’s club was five games under .500 when they traded David Robertson to officially wave the white flag. They’d fall even further below the .500 mark by the end of the season.