2 reasons the Mets will finish above .500, 2 reasons they will finish below

The Mets won’t finish above .500 because the injury bug will bite them

The Mets have been relatively healthy to begin the year. They’ve had to place a couple of guys on the IL. J.D. Martinez experienced a setback during his unusual minor league assignment. Surely, someone else is already playing through some pain.

It’s usually by around this point in the season when players’ bodies begin to ache a little worse. The timing of those injuries tend to be devastating. The last thing this Mets team needs is to lose one of those top-talent guys.

Again with the pitching staff. One could argue the Mets can more afford to lose an offensive player merely because many of those guys have struggled. They’re now having to rotate through a couple of the “lesser” players on a more regular basis just to get everyone playing time. With pitching, it’s different. They’ve already dipped into the depth. We can appreciate the players they have available in the backseat while hoping none of them ever have to grab the wheel.

Most concerning are the number of players the Mets brought in this offseason with a track record of getting hurt. Luis Severino has struggled to stay on the field for years. Harrison Bader, who has played remarkably well for the team, is another one of those constantly hurt guys to wonder about. Starling Marte has played like he’s healthy but his age and two straight years of missing time should have us wondering if it’s only a matter of time.

Something the Mets don’t have a lot of is positional depth. There are a couple of positions where they’d be fine. However, none of the prospects are knocking loudly on the door and many of the veterans they added in the offseason on minor league deals are great solutions. An injury to a player like Francisco Alvarez can completely deplete the offensive production from a position. We don’t need more Joey Wendle in the starting lineup.

The Mets will finish above .500 because many of their best hitters haven’t played well yet

This is a bit of a “cope” yet it needs to be stated. With as bad as so many of the top hitters on this team have performed, we have to believe they’ll be better at some point and the result will have the Mets playing more competitive baseball. Just as Francisco Lindor seemed to crawl out of his slump, Pete Alonso replaced him in the doghouse.

The team hasn’t been a barrel of missed opportunities. They’ve actually been closer to average in terms of offensive production. Their biggest problem is the length at which guys like Lindor and Alonso go completely cold.

To look at some of the numbers posted by Lindor, Alonso, and Jeff McNeil and for them to be as alive as they are is impressive. All three have failed this year to play to the back of their baseball cards. Their shortcomings should’ve buried the Mets completely.

Fortunately, the number of games where all three were really bad has been few. Lindor started badly while Alonso raked. McNeil has been a frustrating player but he is spraying his hits a little more evenly than that pairing.

This wasn’t the offensive attack we expected out of the Mets. Guys like DJ Stewart are finding their way into the middle of the lineup. How are Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor going to lead the club in batting average?

A long MLB season has a way of averaging out. Once Lindor, Alonso, and maybe even McNeil get their acts together, the Mets can push themselves above .500 and hopefully for good.

The Mets will not finish above .500 they’ll sell at the trade deadline

The line of demarcation comes at the MLB trade deadline. Play well enough beforehand and maybe you’ll be able to play even better after. Show your weaknesses too early and the front office will have enough reasons to sell rather than buy.

The way the Mets set themselves up for 2024 was much closer to seller’s mode. Short term deals added to the books plus no long term extensions put them in the perfect position to be one of the league’s biggest sellers. The only players off-limits are the ones with contracts no one would take.

Where the Mets are in the standings when the trade deadline pops up will have the most to say about their ultimate fate. As positive as many are about the future of the ball club, they aren’t going to be a team that is necessarily better with addition by subtraction. The farm system is promising but there aren’t a bunch of white knights about to ride up midseason to save them. This is a process intended to take longer than one year. It’s about the major league players with maybe a small number of rookies to make a cameo.

A reason the Mets are far more likely to sell at the trade deadline than buy is because the hesitance in the past to add big names mid-year. They could conceivably buy lightly if there’s no question they’re capable of contending. However, to trade away any prospects of note for players who won’t make a big enough difference is wasteful. The best we can probably hope for is a repeat of the 2022 trade deadline when the Mets held too tightly to their prospects and brought in several guys we’d all like to erase from our memories.

Where will David Stearns draw the line this year? Four games against the Atlanta Braves leading into the trade deadline could make or break the direction they ultimately go. Last year’s club was five games under .500 when they traded David Robertson to officially wave the white flag. They’d fall even further below the .500 mark by the end of the season.