The next wave of Mets prospects is about to make an impact

For all the letdown and suffering New York Mets fans have endured, there is one part of the organization that has quietly established a strong track record in recent years.

Stretching back over the past decade, the Mets have shown a propensity to find and draft quality talent through amateur scouting. In fact, a large portion of last year’s roster was homegrown – that is, drafted and developed by the Mets. These not only include first round picks like Brandon Nimmo (2011), Dom Smith (2013), and Michael Conforto (2014), but also later round gems like Seth Lugo (11th round, 2011), Jeff McNeil (10th round, 2013), and Pete Alonso (2nd round, 2016). And if you stretch back a bit farther, there was this prospect named Jacob deGrom they nabbed as the 272nd pick in 2010 – he worked out all right.

Of course, other Mets’ draftees have achieved Major League success – just not in orange and blue. Michael Fulmer, for example, was a supplemental first-round pick in 2011 who became the primary piece in the Yoenis Cespedes trade in 2015. Fulmer went on to win 2016 AL Rookie of the Year with the Detroit Tigers and was an All-Star the following season. He did require Tommy John surgery after that but has worked his way back to become an effective closer.

The common thread in both instances is that, unlike other sports, it takes time for baseball prospects to reach the big leagues, let alone their full potential.

For the Mets, a new wave is finally on the verge of bursting onto the major league scene.

Let’s look at some of the Mets top prospects selected over the past five years (2017-2021), along with a few key international free agents they’ve signed over this time, who could become household names in the not-too-distant future.

2017: Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos

To date, only one Mets draft choice from 2017 has made it to the major leagues. That would be first round pick David Peterson, who quickly emerged as a solid left-handed starter in 2020 before struggling in 2021, both in terms of performance and avoiding injury.

Two other names from that year – one from the draft and another international signing – could debut with the Mets as early as this season. The key questions for both, however, are where they would play and if they’d even take the field in a Mets uniform.

Mark Vientos, whom the Mets selected out of high school in the second round, spent his first two professional seasons at Rookie level in Kingsport before climbing up the farm system. The 6’4’’ third baseman played most of 2021 at Double-A Binghamton before moving up to Triple-A Syracuse late in the year on the strength of a breakout power season – 25 home runs and 43 extra-base hits across only 310 total at-bats after just 27 home runs in his first three minor league seasons combined.

The Mets’ big splash internationally that year was Ronny Mauricio, a 17-year-old shortstop out of the Dominican Republic. Like Vientos, Mauricio’s climb up the system has been slow given his age, but his potential has been consistently recognized, ranking in the top 100 of both Major League Baseball’s and Baseball America’s annual prospect lists each of the past two years. His 2021 season with High-A Brooklyn wasn’t particularly noteworthy on paper (.242/.291/.449 slash line), but he did earn a promotion to Binghamton and, per scouts, has continued impressing with his athleticism.

The biggest roadblocks for both pertain to each one’s primary position. Mauricio is likely not the Mets’ shortstop of the future with Francisco Lindor under contract for the next decade, but at 6’3” with a strong arm, could find a home at third base or the outfield, where he’s played some games in the minors. Vientos, meanwhile, has competition to landing the third base job in the form of another big-time prospect in the Mets’ system (more on him later), which could ultimately make Vientos expendable. Regardless, both are high value prospects who could help in some way soon.

2018: Francisco Alvarez

Unfortunately, the 2018 draft class may be remembered more for what could have been than what ultimately may be. The Mets’ top choice that year was Jarred Kelenic, who of course, was subsequently traded away as the centerpiece of the infamous deal that brought Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to New York. Kelenic’s debut with the Mariners in 2021 was less than impressive (-1.8 WAR in 93 games played), but the 22-year-old outfielder has been regarded as a can’t-miss, five tool prospect. Time will tell.

There’s also Simeon Woods Richardson, a second-round choice dealt as part of the package that brought Marcus Stroman over from Toronto in 2019. The return in that trade worked out a bit better for the Mets (even if the aftertaste hasn’t been great), but the book hasn’t been opened on the young starter yet; he’s been ranked in Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list twice, although a rough 2021 at Double-A might temper the hype he’s carried. Again, time will tell.

One notable addition the Mets have hung onto from that year, however, has quickly made his case for being the best of the bunch. That would be Francisco Alvarez, who signed shortly after the draft out of Venezuela.

Alvarez, who only just turned 20 in November, heads into 2022 as a top-15 overall prospect according to Baseball America (#13), Baseball Prospectus (#10) and Keith Law of The Athletic (#8). The catcher has already stormed up the farm system, reaching High-A Brooklyn last year after a full season at Rookie level in 2019, alternate-site work during the pandemic in 2020, and just 15 games at Low-A St. Lucie to start 2021. He has raw power, which was on full display last season to the tune of 24 home runs and a .554 slugging percentage across just 327 at-bats.

Combined with leadership skills and a strong arm, scouts say Alvarez has the tools to keep accelerating towards the major leagues. While a debut in 2023 seems more likely, anything is possible if things keep trending as they are for Alvarez in 2022.

2020-21: J.T. Ginn

The payoff of the Mets’ last two draft classes is already mirroring that of 2018, for all the wrong reasons. Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Mets’ first round choice in the abbreviated 2020 draft, is already out of the organization, having been traded for Javy Baez at the deadline last July. The team’s first round choice in 2021, Kumar Rocker, never even made it into the farm system, as the sides could not come to a contract agreement reportedly due to medical concerns.

Like 2018, however, there is still one prospect from these past two classes poised to make an impact quickly. J.T. Ginn, a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher out of Mississippi State, has already cracked the top 5 of the Mets’ organizational rankings per MLB.com after being selected 52nd overall in 2020.  There was even some talk of the Mets calling him up last season amidst a rash of injuries to the major league rotation, but with very little minor league experience to speak of, the team wisely passed on that. That’s not to diminish Ginn’s pedigree, however – his first professional season was a success, with a 3.33 ERA in 18 starts split between Brooklyn and St. Lucie.

Ginn has a plus fastball and slider that can help him rise quickly through the farm system, but the Mets shouldn’t be quick to rush him up if they can help it. He has just one season of minor league ball under his belt after undergoing Tommy John surgery in his last year of college (just prior to the draft), so a bit more seasoning and experience should be prioritized over a big-league debut any time before 2023.