The next wave of Mets prospects is about to make an impact

For all the letdown and suffering New York Mets fans have endured, there is one part of the organization that has quietly established a strong track record in recent years.

Stretching back over the past decade, the Mets have shown a propensity to find and draft quality talent through amateur scouting. In fact, a large portion of last year’s roster was homegrown – that is, drafted and developed by the Mets. These not only include first round picks like Brandon Nimmo (2011), Dom Smith (2013), and Michael Conforto (2014), but also later round gems like Seth Lugo (11th round, 2011), Jeff McNeil (10th round, 2013), and Pete Alonso (2nd round, 2016). And if you stretch back a bit farther, there was this prospect named Jacob deGrom they nabbed as the 272nd pick in 2010 – he worked out all right.

Of course, other Mets’ draftees have achieved Major League success – just not in orange and blue. Michael Fulmer, for example, was a supplemental first-round pick in 2011 who became the primary piece in the Yoenis Cespedes trade in 2015. Fulmer went on to win 2016 AL Rookie of the Year with the Detroit Tigers and was an All-Star the following season. He did require Tommy John surgery after that but has worked his way back to become an effective closer.

The common thread in both instances is that, unlike other sports, it takes time for baseball prospects to reach the big leagues, let alone their full potential.

For the Mets, a new wave is finally on the verge of bursting onto the major league scene.

Let’s look at some of the Mets top prospects selected over the past five years (2017-2021), along with a few key international free agents they’ve signed over this time, who could become household names in the not-too-distant future.

2018: Francisco Alvarez

Unfortunately, the 2018 draft class may be remembered more for what could have been than what ultimately may be. The Mets’ top choice that year was Jarred Kelenic, who of course, was subsequently traded away as the centerpiece of the infamous deal that brought Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to New York. Kelenic’s debut with the Mariners in 2021 was less than impressive (-1.8 WAR in 93 games played), but the 22-year-old outfielder has been regarded as a can’t-miss, five tool prospect. Time will tell.

There’s also Simeon Woods Richardson, a second-round choice dealt as part of the package that brought Marcus Stroman over from Toronto in 2019. The return in that trade worked out a bit better for the Mets (even if the aftertaste hasn’t been great), but the book hasn’t been opened on the young starter yet; he’s been ranked in Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list twice, although a rough 2021 at Double-A might temper the hype he’s carried. Again, time will tell.

One notable addition the Mets have hung onto from that year, however, has quickly made his case for being the best of the bunch. That would be Francisco Alvarez, who signed shortly after the draft out of Venezuela.

Alvarez, who only just turned 20 in November, heads into 2022 as a top-15 overall prospect according to Baseball America (#13), Baseball Prospectus (#10) and Keith Law of The Athletic (#8). The catcher has already stormed up the farm system, reaching High-A Brooklyn last year after a full season at Rookie level in 2019, alternate-site work during the pandemic in 2020, and just 15 games at Low-A St. Lucie to start 2021. He has raw power, which was on full display last season to the tune of 24 home runs and a .554 slugging percentage across just 327 at-bats.

Combined with leadership skills and a strong arm, scouts say Alvarez has the tools to keep accelerating towards the major leagues. While a debut in 2023 seems more likely, anything is possible if things keep trending as they are for Alvarez in 2022.

2019: Brett Baty, Matt Allan, Alex Ramirez

The Mets’ haul from 2019 already has the potential to be one of the best in franchise history, with three players taken that year already among the organization’s top 10 prospects, per MLB.com.

The biggest name of the class is Brett Baty, whom the Mets selected 12th overall out of Lake Travis High School in Texas. As a 19-year-old, Baty’s first season included 24 extra base hits in just 47 games at Rookie Level before ending the year in Brooklyn, where he would spend time at the alternate site in 2020 during the height of the pandemic. The third baseman showed no signs of rust coming back in 2021, with a .309 batting average and .911 OPS before moving up to Binghamton, where he hit .272 over his final 40 games.

Baty (surprise) is the primary competition for Mark Vientos as the Mets’ third baseman of the future. Both currently have scouting grades of 50 for fielding (average) and 60 for arm (above average), so aside from hitting pedigree, the determining factor will be how well each adjusts to playing different positions. Like Vientos, Baty spent time last year in left field, so expect more of that experimentation this year, especially since both could debut as early as later this season.

For all the buzz around Baty, the Mets arguably generated more draft day excitement upon selecting Matt Allan, a right-handed pitcher out of Seminole High School in Florida, in the third round. There were questions as to whether Allan, whom many scouts tabbed as the best high school arm available that year, would sign or go to the University of Florida, but the Mets locked him in at $2.5 million, significantly higher than his slot value. Unfortunately, Allan missed all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, but is expected back at some point in 2022 and, still just 20 years old, maintains a high ceiling.

Rounding out the trio of top 2019 prospects is Alex Ramirez, who signed out of the Dominican Republic. Ramirez didn’t get his pro career going until 2021 due to the pandemic, so the forecast is still a bit raw. He struggled with the bat in St. Lucie, highlighted by a 31% strikeout rate, but did show strong defensive skills in center field. At just 19 years old, there’s a longer runway for Ramirez to hone his craft in 2022 and beyond.

2020-21: J.T. Ginn

The payoff of the Mets’ last two draft classes is already mirroring that of 2018, for all the wrong reasons. Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Mets’ first round choice in the abbreviated 2020 draft, is already out of the organization, having been traded for Javy Baez at the deadline last July. The team’s first round choice in 2021, Kumar Rocker, never even made it into the farm system, as the sides could not come to a contract agreement reportedly due to medical concerns.

Like 2018, however, there is still one prospect from these past two classes poised to make an impact quickly. J.T. Ginn, a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher out of Mississippi State, has already cracked the top 5 of the Mets’ organizational rankings per MLB.com after being selected 52nd overall in 2020.  There was even some talk of the Mets calling him up last season amidst a rash of injuries to the major league rotation, but with very little minor league experience to speak of, the team wisely passed on that. That’s not to diminish Ginn’s pedigree, however – his first professional season was a success, with a 3.33 ERA in 18 starts split between Brooklyn and St. Lucie.

Ginn has a plus fastball and slider that can help him rise quickly through the farm system, but the Mets shouldn’t be quick to rush him up if they can help it. He has just one season of minor league ball under his belt after undergoing Tommy John surgery in his last year of college (just prior to the draft), so a bit more seasoning and experience should be prioritized over a big-league debut any time before 2023.